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Investing for Beginners in 2022

Investing for Beginners in 2022

The world of investing is an intimidating place for beginners. I know how it feels.

Sadly, the finance industry is full of complex terminology that confuses beginners and makes them feel like they aren’t smart enough to manage their own money, so they leave it to the professionals.

That changes today. In this comprehensive guide, you will learn how to think about investing and discover the popular ways you can start investing your money.

Why Invest?

The obvious goal of investing is to grow your money. But it helps to think about what that means on a deeper level.

Money represents our energy. We spend time working at our jobs to earn money that we can use to spend, save, or invest. 

In that sense, we convert our life energy (time and effort spent working) into monetary energy (money to use for whatever we want later on).

If We Grow Our Money...

If we grow our money, we amplify the time and energy we've spent working.

If We Lose Our Money...

If we lose our money, we destroy the time and energy we've spent working.

The goal of investing is to take each hour of time and energy spent working and grow it into more than one hour of earnings.

If we succeed, we can work fewer hours in our lifetime. If we fail, we’ll need to work more hours in our lifetime, leaving less time to do the things we truly love.

Example: Let’s say I earn $20/hour and work 100 hours. I earn $2,000. If I invest that money and grow it into $4,000, I have 200 hours of earnings when I only spent 100 hours working. The result is 100 hours that I get to spend doing interesting things other than working.

If I lose my $2,000 of earnings, I worked 100 hours and have zero hours of earnings. I’ll have to work another 100 hours just to get back to even, resulting in working 200 hours for only 100 hours of earnings.

I hope putting money management in this perspective helps motivate you to learn and make better decisions with your money.

Investing Pre-Requisites

What do you need to start investing? Of course, you’ll need cold, hard cash available to invest.

The second thing you’ll need is an account at the financial institution you’re going to use. The type of investing you want to do will determine what type of account you’ll need, and where.

A brokerage account is a popular type of investment account that allows you to invest on your own. If you want to buy shares of AAPL or TSLA, a brokerage account is what you’ll need.

There are many popular brokerage firms you can choose from that will allow you to do the same thing: buy and sell financial products such as stocks, options, and futures.

I trade and invest with tastyworks, a Chicago-based brokerage firm specializing in options trading. Since I do a lot of options trading, tastyworks works for me (pun intended). I can also buy and sell stocks commission-free with tastyworks.

How Much Money Do You Need to Start Investing?

What’s the ideal amount of money you need to start investing? Good news: not much!

Many new investors feel that they need thousands of dollars to start investing, which isn’t the case. In fact, I believe it’s good to learn with a small amount of money. That way, mistakes early on won’t lead to catastrophic losses.

With just a few hundred dollars, you can start investing in low-cost funds that give you exposure to hundreds of different companies. We’ll discuss how that works later in this guide.

Invest Yourself or Use a Robo-Advisor?

invest yourself or use a robo-advisor?

As a beginner investor, you can choose to invest yourself (self-directed investing), or you can use a platform that makes it easy to invest without much thought.

If you want to invest your money yourself, such as buying shares of AAPL or a stock market index exchange-traded fund (ETF) like VOO, you’ll use your brokerage account we talked about earlier.

If you want to automate your investing and don’t want to think about it, you can use a “robo-advisor” like Wealthfront.

There’s no right or wrong answer! 

You can always have an account where you have fun investing in individual companies you know and love, while also using a robo-advisor like Wealthfront for a portion of your investments.

How Do Robo-Advisors Work?

Robo-advisors like Wealthfront are very easy to use.

It takes a few minutes to sign up for an account. During the signup process, they’ll ask you about your risk-tolerance, like if you want to follow a high-growth, high-risk approach, or a low-risk wealth preservation approach.

After that, simply deposit money into your Wealthfront account and they will buy a portfolio of low-cost funds for you. 

You don’t have to think about investing for one second because a robot is making the decisions. All you have to do is deposit money into your account, which you can automate by setting up recurring deposits.

I love these mindless investing approaches because I tend to forget that it’s happening—which is the point.

By using an automated investing strategy with a robo-advisor, you can invest following Warren Buffett’s advice of buying stocks as often as possible.

Assuming you want to invest on your own, you’ll need to learn about the types of things you can invest in.

What to Invest In? Exploring Asset Classes

Well done! You’ve successfully opened up your first brokerage account and you’re excited to start investing. But what do you buy? It’s time to explore the world of financial assets to learn the types of investments you can make.

In finance, an “asset class” is a group of investment products with similar characteristics. For example, shares of AAPL and MSFT are in the “stocks” asset class because they are both publicly-traded stocks.

Bitcoin and Ethereum reside in the “cryptocurrency” asset class.

In the following sections, I’ll walk you through stocks, bonds, real estate, cryptocurrency, and cash/savings accounts.

Investing in Stocks

In the early 1600s, the Dutch East India Company was the first company to issue shares of stock for public investors. Since then, stocks have been at the heart of the investing world.

Stocks allow individual investors to buy part ownership in companies.

By purchasing shares of NVIDIA (NVDA), you’ll be a small owner of the company.

If NVDA performs well over time, the stock price will increase and your investment will grow. If NVDA doesn’t do so well, the stock price will decrease and your investment will lose money.

Fortunately, NVDA investors have done well in recent history. In late 2016, NVDA shares were trading for $15/share, increasing 15x to $220 in August of 2021.

Price Appreciation and Dividends

There are two ways to make money buying stocks: share price appreciation and dividends.

Price Appreciation

If you buy a stock for $100 and the stock price goes up to $110, you've made a 10% return on your investment.

Stock Dividends

Many public companies pay dividends to their shareholders. If a company pays a $2.50 annual dividend, you'll earn $2.50 for every share you own. If the stock price is $100, the "dividend yield" is 2.5%.

The Power of Stock Investing

The wealthiest people in the world obtained their wealth by having massive upside from getting paid in percentages—such as sales commissions or owning shares of a company they started.

The beauty of stock investing is that anyone in the world can buy shares of a publicly-traded company and “get paid in percentages.” Warren Buffett made his billions by purchasing shares of companies and holding them long-term.

Own Something

Stock investing allows anyone to own a piece of a company and potentially build life-changing wealth. One way to manage your money like the wealthy is to own stocks.

Investing Basics: Mutual Funds and ETFs

When I was first learning about investing, I paid a lot of attention to mutual funds. 

My dad worked at Fidelity, and I remember spending hours on the Fidelity website looking at mutual funds when I visited him in Boston. I’d daydream about all the money I could make from pouring money into well-performing mutual funds. 

Too bad I was a broke 20 year old.

In this section, you’ll learn about mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). They are similar, but there are key differences to know about that can save you lots of money and headaches.

What Are Mutual Funds?

A mutual fund is a pool of money from many investors that is invested in specific assets. If you have a 401(k) plan, chances are your money is sitting in mutual funds.

How do they work? Mutual funds collect money from investors around the world, giving each investor part ownership of the fund’s total assets.

The benefit is that individual investors can invest in diversified portfolios of assets without needing a pile of money to buy up all the assets in the fund themselves.

Why Invest in Mutual Funds?

By pooling together money from lots of investors, each person owns a share of a portfolio of assets that would otherwise be too expensive to buy.

Let’s create our own fictitious mutual fund to illustrate how it works.

Say 100 investors from around the world each deposit $1,000 into the mutual fund, giving the fund $100,000 to invest.

The mutual fund’s objective is to invest in 100 of the largest technology companies in the U.S.

The fund manager will invest the $100,000 into each of these stocks to create a diversified portfolio of U.S. technology stocks.

Since each investor put $1,000 into the fund, each of them owns 1% of the fund from the start.

Let’s say things go well and the tech portfolio grows to 40% to $140,000. Since each investor owns 1% of the fund, their investments are now worth $1,400 each.

If the portfolio doesn’t perform well and falls 20% to $80,000, each investor’s 1% share would be worth $800.

Pooling together money from lots of individuals allows each investor gain exposure to a large basket of stocks without much money. In our example, each person wouldn’t be able to buy 100 different technology stocks with $1,000, which is why mutual funds are so powerful.

However, mutual funds can come with big downsides: investment minimums, lockup periods, high management fees, and load fees.

Minimums

Some funds require a minimum deposit, such as $2,500, to get started.

Lockup Periods

A lockup period of six months means an investor cannot withdraw their funds until six months after deposit.

Expense Ratio and Load Fees

An "expense ratio" of 1% means the fund will take 1% of your assets each year as a management fee. A "load fee" is a lump sum fee the fund takes when you enter (front load fee) or exit the fund (deferred load fee). A 5% front load fee means the fund takes 5% of your assets when you make your initial deposit.

Fortunately, there’s a solution to the dark side of mutual funds: exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

What Are Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)?

As the name suggests, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are funds that are traded on exchanges. They are similar to mutual funds, as ETFs offer shareholders part ownership of the fund’s assets.

Shares of ETFs trade on stock exchanges like shares of AAPL and NVDA.

Mutual funds do not trade publicly. You need to set up an account directly with the mutual fund company to buy their funds, which can only be traded once per day.

ETFs offer investors the same benefits as mutual funds without the downsides:

Low Fees

Many ETFs have expense ratios close to 0% and no load fees. The Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF (VOO) charges investors 0.03% in management fees each year.

No Investment Minimums

There are no minimum investment requirements to buy ETFs aside from the cost of a single share.

Liquidity

Mutual fund investors can only trade once per day. ETF holders can trade shares during normal market hours. The average daily trading volume of popular ETFs can be in the 10s of millions of shares.

Efficient Pricing

Institutions called Authorized Participants keep ETF share prices close to their Net Asset Value (NAV).

As an example, for $375, you could buy one share of QQQ, the Invesco Nasdaq-100 index ETF.

QQQ offers investors ownership of the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange:

Unlike mutual funds, ETFs do not have any of the sinister load fees or lockup periods mentioned earlier. Many ETFs have expense ratios or annual management fees close to 0%.

Lastly, since ETFs trade like shares of MSFT, you can buy and sell shares of ETFs during normal stock market trading hours. You can only buy or sell mutual funds once per day.

Popular Stock Market Index ETFs

Popular stock market ETFs include:

SPY — S&P 500

IWM — Russell 2000

QQQ — Invesco Nasdaq-100

DIA — Dow Jones Industrial Average

VTI — Vanguard Total Stock Market

Check out each of the fund pages above to learn more about each one. It’s a good practice to learn how to navigate fund websites!

Investing in Bonds

Bonds are the next asset class to learn after stocks. Bonds typically come with lower levels of risk compared to investing in stocks, but not always!

Recent data estimates the global value of the bond market to be around $120 trillion, so they’re kind of a big deal.

What is a Bond?

A bond is a form of debt where the issuer receives money up front—effectively a loan, pays a fixed income stream each year, then returns the initial investment to the buyer. 

On the other side, the buyer acquires the bond with a lump sum payment up front and receives the fixed interest payments each year until the bond reaches maturity—the end of its life.

A bond is debt to the issuer because they must pay the bondholder interest payments each year and return the initial investment to the buyer upon maturity.

A bond is an asset to the buyer because they receive regular interest payments each year and, hopefully, get their money back when the bond matures.

Bonds are referred to as “fixed-income” due to the regular interest payments of equal amounts that the bondholder receives.

Bond Investment Example

Let’s walk through a simple example together to understand how it works and learn the lingo.

Example: Acme Corp. issues (creates) a 10-year, $1,000 bond paying a 3% coupon payment.

Here are the key bond terms to know:

Par Value / Face Value

The bond's "par value" or "face value" is the amount the investor receives when the bond reaches the end of its life. In our example, the par value of the bond is $1,000.

Maturity Date

A bond's maturity date is when the bond reaches the end of its life and the par value is returned to the investor. In our example, the maturity date is 10 years from the day of issuance.

Coupon Payment

The coupon payment is the amount of interest paid each year to the bondholder. In our example, that's 3% of $1,000, or $30. Coupon payments are typically paid twice per year, so the bondholder would receive $15 every 6 months.

If I buy this bond for $1,000, I’ll receive $30/year for the next 10 years, then I’ll get my $1,000 back.

My benefit is a stream of income on my cash. The benefit to Acme Corp. is $1,000 they can use to fund their business operations. It’s a win-win.

Total Return

A total return in investing is the combination of profits and losses that an investment can produce.

What’s the total return from my bond purchase in our example?

Coupon Payments: $30/year x 10 years = +$300

Profit/Loss on Bond Price: Paid $1,000 then Received $1,000 = $0

My total return over the course of 10 years would be $300, or 30% on my initial $1,000 investment. 

When Should You Buy Bonds?

While buying a bond for the income stream sounds wonderful, there are investment risks you need to know about. The biggest risks bond investors face are default risk, interest rate risk, and inflation risk:

Default Risk

If a company's performance declines and they "default" on their debt, they can no longer pay back the debt they owe. As a bond buyer, you risk losing your investment if a company goes bust.

Interest Rate Risk

Bond prices are sensitive to changes in interest rates. If I buy a bond and rates increase, newly-issued bonds will be more attractive to investors and my bond's price will fall. If I buy a bond and rates fall, newly-issued bonds will be less attractive to investors and my bond's price will increase.

Inflation Risk

If prices rise, the real return on a bond will fall. If I purchase a bond with a 1.5% yield and inflation soars to 3.5%, the real return is -2% because my bond returns are lower than the growth in prices.

Before investing in bonds, you should consider the type of bonds you’re buying, the interest rate environment, and inflation expectations.

Bond investing in 2021 is tricky because we are in a low interest rate environment with high inflation. If you buy bonds now and the Federal Reserve starts increasing the Fed Funds Rate, bond prices will fall (yields will rise). And if inflation runs hot, bond investors will suffer negative real returns as prices of goods and services outpace the returns on their bond positions.

Source: MacroTrends

Since the 1970s, U.S. Treasury investors enjoyed much higher returns on their investments compared to now, as yields were above 5% until the 2000s. Additionally, falling yields over time meant bond prices were increasing as newly-issued bonds offered lower coupon rates than older bonds issued in a higher rate environment.

How to Buy Bonds

You’re probably wondering how you can buy bonds.

To buy bonds directly, you need to have an account with a bond broker. You can buy bonds directly from the U.S. government on the treasurydirect.gov website.

If that doesn’t sound like fun, you can buy bonds by purchasing shares of bond ETFs. We’re saved by ETFs yet again!

By purchasing shares of a bond ETF, you’re buying ownership in a basket of bonds held by the fund. The ETF share price will change as the bond prices change, and they’ll pay you the bond coupons through dividends.

Popular Bond ETFs

There are many ETFs you can use to invest in bonds. Here are a few of the popular ones:

BND — Vanguard Total Bond Market Fund

HYG — High-Yield Corporate Bond Fund

TLT — 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Fund

BND invests in a broad basket of various investment-grade (low default risk) bonds.

HYG invests in high-yield corporate bonds, which have higher risk of default because the issuing companies do not have the strongest financials.

TLT invests in 20+ year U.S. Treasuries, which have virtually no risk of default as they are issued by the U.S. Government.

Click on each fund’s link above to learn more about each ETF.

Investing in Real Estate

We’ve all heard stories of people getting wealthy from real estate investing. Figures such as Robert Kiyosaki (Author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad) have long been proponents of buying real estate.

Traditional real estate investing offers many benefits, including:

  • Leverage
  • Expense Deductions
  • Tax Strategies
  • Owning a hard asset that generates cash flow

But traditional real estate investing can be inaccessible to those without lots of cash in the bank and time to manage properties.

Fortunately, there are modern ways to invest in real estate without buying physical property. One way to do so is by purchasing shares of a real estate ETF or investment trust. Another accessible approach to buying real estate is using a crowdfunding platform like Fundrise.

What is a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)?

A REIT is a publicly-traded fund that holds real estate properties that produce income. When you buy shares of a REIT, you participate in cash flows generated by the properties held in the REIT’s portfolio. Each year, REITs must pay out 90%+ of real estate income to shareholders through dividends.

Popular Real Estate ETFs

The following funds are REIT ETFs, meaning they invest in a broad basket of REITs, offering more diversification than investing in specific real estate trusts.

VNQ — Vanguard Total Real Estate ETF

IYR — iShares Real Estate ETF

SCHH — Schwab U.S. REIT ETF

Investing in Cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrencies are the newest asset class on the block.

In January 2009, Bitcoin was born. Created by a pseudonymous figure named Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin aims to provide everyone in the world equal access to sound money that is trust-minimized and borderless.

The native currency of the Bitcoin network, bitcoin (lowercase ‘b’), has averaged triple-digit-percentage annual returns since its creation in 2009. As of August 2021, each bitcoin is worth nearly $50,000, giving bitcoin a total market capitalization of $900 billion.

The creation of bitcoin was the catalyst for the invention of thousands of other cryptocurrencies with various use-cases.

While cryptocurrencies can spark controversy, there’s no denying that investors globally have been warming up to the idea of cryptocurrencies having a spot in their investment portfolios.

Historically, bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 stock market index has been low:

Source: ARK Invest

Adding a historically low-correlation, high-return asset like bitcoin to a portfolio may help improve portfolio returns.

Bitcoin is often compared to gold as a store-of-value asset because bitcoin has all the money properties of gold, but better in many categories:

1) More divisible

2) More transportable

3) Safer to secure

4) Inelastic, capped supply

5) Can be sent anywhere in the world in minutes

The total market value of gold is somewhere around $10 trillion, while the market value of bitcoin is currently around $900 billion. Many believe bitcoin will eventually become larger than gold, suggesting a bitcoin price of $500,000+ per coin.

Whether bitcoin ultimately ends up being worth $0 or millions, there won’t be an in-between. Bitcoin is an asymmetric return bet (exponentially higher return potential compared to risk), making it an attractive consideration for investors globally.

Investors can also gain access to bitcoin via ETFs, such as BITO by ProShares. These funds, however, come not without risks

How to Buy Bitcoin

So how do you buy cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin? The most common way to buy cryptocurrencies is to set up an account at crypto exchanges such as Coinbase or Gemini. Or, you can setup recurring bitcoin purchases with low fees using Swan Bitcoin. Click here to learn more about Swan Bitcoin and earn $10 of free bitcoin when you sign up.

Small crypto purchases are costly. I use Swan to buy bitcoin everyday because they have a great fee structure for recurring purchase plans.

Some stock trading brokerages offer crypto trading functionality, but many of them do not yet allow you to send your crypto to different wallet addresses. You have to keep your crypto with the brokerage firm, which is not good practice with large investment positions. If you do want to transfer your crypto out, you’ll have to sell your position, move the cash elsewhere, then repurchase the crypto asset. Doing so isn’t ideal because you’ll realize capital gains if you have profits on your position, increasing your year-end tax bill.

For now, the popular options for buying crypto are using exchanges like Coinbase or Gemini, and/or using a recurring purchase platform like Swan Bitcoin (bitcoin only).

Savings Accounts

Savings accounts have historically been a way for people to generate low-risk income on their savings.

Unfortunately, even the best savings accounts offer interest rates near 0%.

As of April 2021, Wealthfront’s Cash Account was yielding 0.10% interest per year.

That means if you deposit $10,000 into this savings account, you’d generate $10 in income after an entire year. Ouch!

Remember when we talked about bonds and I mentioned the concept of “real” returns?

A savings account earning 0.10% has negative real returns if inflation is 2% because the return is lower than the increase in prices (inflation).


Inflation of 2% means a basket of goods/services costs $100 today and $102 in a year.

If my $100 savings account generates 0.10%, then my $100 in savings is worth $100.10 next year. Since I didn’t grow my money to $102, I lost purchasing power.

The bottom line: savings accounts are basically checking accounts in this low interest rate environment. The name of the game in investing is to grow purchasing power. Growing purchasing power means our money grows faster than the prices of our everyday purchases.

Unfortunately, in a near-zero interest rate environment, we have to invest in riskier assets if we want a chance at returns that beat inflation. If we don’t, we’ll see our hard-earned money degrade in value, effectively wasting some of the time we spent earning that money. 

What's Your Risk Tolerance?

If you’ve made it this far, give yourself some credit! We’ve gone through a ton of investing content thus far.

Now that you’ve learned about the various asset classes you can invest in, which ones are right for you?

That ultimately comes down to your risk tolerance, age, and wealth.

There isn’t a “one-size-fits-all” approach to investing. Everyone is different.

Risk vs. Reward

In life, everything has a risk and a potential reward. The key is to know when the risk is worth the potential reward.

Risk and reward have a direct relationship: the higher the risk, the higher the potential reward; the lower the risk, the lower the potential reward.

In July of 2016, I quit my first job out of college. I spent three years working at a company creating presentations and performing data analysis on options trading strategies.

I always knew I would one day do something on my own, but I didn’t yet have any knowledge about anything. After three years learning about the stock market and options trading, I had the confidence to go off on my own to create my own online business/brand.

Quitting my job in 2016 was risky: I chose an uncertain path and deleted my predictable income stream.

But the potential reward was high: the opportunity to work for myself, make whatever content I wanted, create my own schedule, work from anywhere, and have virtually no limit to how much money I could make.

Fortunately, after many years of a ton of work and making no money, things turned around. The risky decision turned into a rewarding situation.

Taking risks doesn’t always work out, which is why it’s risky! It’s essential to analyze when a risk is worth taking. Some aren’t.

Age and Wealth

In an investing context, an 18-year-old college student named Charlie and a 65-year-old retiree named Jane will have different risk tolerances and goals.

Charlie can swing for the fences and take big risks because he has decades of earnings to recover any early investing losses. Charlie also doesn’t have much money to lose because he’s just starting to build his wealth from ground zero.

Young investors can afford to take higher risks with their money because they have decades of earnings ahead of them and not much to lose.

Jane, on the other hand, is 65 with $1,000,000 in the bank. She’s saved and invested well over the course of her career. Having built a fortune, she can’t afford to take big risks because she has a lot to lose.

Older investors with sizable wealth can't afford to take high risks with their money because they have a lot to lose and not many years of earnings ahead of them.

Comparing these two scenarios, Charlie has little to lose and a lot of time, allowing him the opportunity to take big risks. If Charlie was a Tesla and Apple fanatic, he might want to invest all of his early earnings in TSLA and AAPL stock.

But Jane has a large portfolio of assets, and it wouldn’t be wise to put all of her money into TSLA and AAPL stock. Instead, a wise approach for Jane is to diversify her portfolio into many different asset classes.

What is Diversification in Investing?

Diversification in investing is allocating your portfolio in many different assets. A well-diversified portfolio will have small allocations to many different asset classes, even multiple assets within each asset class.

Buying an S&P 500 ETF is an example of stock diversification because you’re buying 500 different companies. If one of the 500 companies goes to zero, the basket of 500 companies won’t collectively go to zero.

If Jane is diversified and one asset class in her portfolio does poorly, she won’t lose everything.

Wealth preservation is the name of the game when you have a lot of money. It can take a lifetime of investing and risk-taking to build wealth. It doesn’t take much time to lose wealth.

A diversified portfolio consists of positions in many asset classes, and even many different positions within each asset class. Some investors like to keep it very simple and buy a few ETFs that have diversified holdings instead of buying hundreds of assets themselves.

The Downside of Diversification

While diversification is great for wealth preservation, it hinders explosive growth. Charlie, our 18-year-old friend who is just starting to invest, may not want to diversify too much because he wants the opportunity to grow his money quickly. Fast growth can only happen with concentrated bets.

In fact, when we analyze the world’s wealthiest people, it turns out they didn’t build their wealth buying broad stock market index funds. 

Jeff Bezos earned over $100 billion by holding nearly all of his wealth in Amazon (AMZN) stock for over 20 years.

Elon Musk has a majority of his wealth in Tesla Inc. (TSLA) stock, which started from nothing and is now a $700 billion company.

Starting a business is a concentrated bet.

Even Warren Buffett has spoken against diversification:

The truth is, while diversification prevents you from losing all of your money in one position, it’s impossible to build wealth quickly investing in a broadly diversified portfolio like the S&P 500. 

So when you’re considering what to invest in, think about your risk tolerance, age, and current wealth. The lower your age and wealth, the higher the risks you can afford to take. The higher your age and wealth, the lower the risks you can afford to take.

Conclusion

Learning how to invest can be an anxious task. Like learning anything else, it takes time. The more you think and learn about investing, the more prepared you’ll be to take advantage of life’s opportunities.

I hope this guide stretched your mind beyond its original dimensions. It can be slightly uncomfortable, so don’t forget to rest after absorbing all of this content!

I had a lot of fun writing this up, and I hope you learned a lot.

Recommended Reading

Chris Butler portrait

Emotional Investing is Inevitable. Learn how to Cope.

brain vs heart

Let’s get this out of the way right off the bat: you will never be able to completely control your emotions in investing. It is an impossibility.

However, this is not a bad thing. Emotions play an integral part in both the cognitive and investing process. You are a better investor with them. 

In this article, projectfinance takes a deep dive into the emotional investor. We will examine how science has proven emotion is not only necessary but desirable for investors. 

Additionally, we will look at a few different coping strategies which may help trigger our emotions less.

   Highlights

  • Finance professionals are just as emotional as the rest of us retail investors. 

  • Pauline Yan tells us that working with your emotions is a better strategy than trying to ignore them. 

  • “Ignorance is Bliss” can be the best strategy for both long-term investors as well as active traders. 

  • Neuroscientist Antonio Damasio shows how emotions help the brain in filtering through vast data sets.

We like to believe that professionals have conquered their emotions. Politicians, doctors, retirement financial planners that handle our life savings; we like to think that emotionally charged thought plays little to no part in their thinking. 

But the truth is, emotion plays an important factor in the decision-making of all human beings. 

When I think of historical figures at the top of their game, Emerson’s “Representative Men” come to mind. 

Montaigne, Napoleon, Goethe (amongst others); they all had their demons; they all struggled at points in their lives with crippling emotions.

Goethe experienced “psychic threats and polar tensions often to the limits of destruction”, Napoleon sought refuge from the jealousy of his adulterous wooden toothed wife in world domination, and Montaine fell into a melancholic depression following the sudden deaths of numerous loved ones. 

The world’s greatest minds all suffered from intense emotional experiences. 

So if these pillars of human thought can’t conquer their emotions, how are financial professionals any different?

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Richard Taffler, professor of Finance and Accounting at Warwick Business School, says they aren’t.

Investment Pros Are Just as Emotional as You

In reply to the Journal’s statement, “Some people think pros are more rational than individual investors”, Prof. Taffler responded:

Professor Taffler, also an authority on behavioral finance, later explains that this acquiescence to emotion is not only ubiquitous amongst fund managers, but outright inevitable.

It comes off as almost paradoxical. Taffler believes that an individual completely devoid of emotion would not be willing to take a risk-on position in the first place.

This makes sense, too. As humans, we must experience some degree of emotion. If our emotions were completely neutralized indeed, we’d derive as much pleasure from this life as a sedimentary rock. 

So if we must experience emotion as humans (as though that’s a bad thing); if we are indeed destined to be Epicureans and not Stoics, how do we make the best out of it? Where do we start at self improvement if that perfect person we aspire to become is unreachable?

Work With Your Emotions

Instead of trying to change our emotional response to market events, perhaps a better strategy is to work with our emotions. 

Pauline Yan, a portfolio manager in Toronto, Canada and founder of the Sunday Morning Brunch financial blog, recommends embracing negative emotions that pertain to investing, such as fear and greed. 

As quoted by CNBC, Yan believes individuals should, “Feel the fear, feel the greed”.

In contrast to fighting our impulses, her theory suggests that swimming downstream (psychologically speaking) allows investors and traders a realistic and steady platform upon which investment decisions can be made. Here are a few ways to get started when working with your emotions.

  1. Identify what emotion exactly you are experiencing when confronted with an adverse market event.
  2. Accept that emotion. Go with the grain. The results from this new approach may surprise you!
  3. Meditate until it no longer bothers you and a more rational response appears.

Another option, and my personal strategy, is the “set it and forget it” mentality. Let’s take a look at that one next. 

Ignorance is Bliss in Investing: Buy and Forget​

Richard Thaler, economist and Professor of Behavioral Science and Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, has his own strategy when it comes to managing emotion during volatile times. 

When asked on an early morning financial news TV program what an investor should do when they wake up and see the market down 3 percent, Thaler recommended, Change channels. Turn the show off.

Richard Thaler

Richard Thaler

Investing is Preparation, Not Work

In investing and trading, the vast majority of your work should be in preparation. Once a position is established, as long as the fundamentals haven’t changed, the best course of action is to stay the course. 

I can’t tell you how many times I messed with positions because of either boredom or desultory second-guessing. Whenever I fidget, I almost always end up donating cash to the market-makers.

Investing is not work. I know of several extraordinarily successful options traders who worked on the floor of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) traders who would pass the time by putting on a green in their office above the trading floor, far away from the “madding crowd”. 

Perhaps they did this because being on the floor may make them second guess themselves. Not paying any attention to the “noise” helped them maintain their initial convictions when they put their positions on. 

When I look at where these traders are at today, I can tell their methods were obviously very successful. Here are a few steps to better become an “ignorant” trader.

  1. Before placing a trade or investment, forecast how you will react emotionally in an adverse market.
  2. Check the position only when it breaches your pre-establish parameters by setting alerts. 
  3. If the position goes against you, recall how you planned on reacting when you were less emotional.
  4. Understand the risk, and meditate the daily ebbs and flows out of your mind. 

In closing, we are going to look at a case study involving a man who had an operation on the part of the brain responsible for emotion. It is a profoundly sad case but also proves the crucial connection between the brain and emotion. One can not operate successfully without the other.

Be Careful What you Wish For: The Tragedy of “Elliot”

The ideal investor/trader, as seen through the eyes of most people, will not incorporate emotion into their financial decision-making. So what would happen if this ideal was actually met? What would happen if an individual could put their frontal lobe on permanent pause? Would this create a super investor? No. Quite the opposite, actually. 

The patient’s name was known throughout the medical community as “Elliot”. Elliot was an educated and successful businessman, a good husband, and had a solid grip on his wealth and finances. 

In the 1980s, Elliot experienced numerous headaches. It was discovered that Elliot had a brain tumor on his frontal lobe, that part of the brain which is responsible for higher cognitive function, including emotion. 

An operation was done; the tumor was removed. But Eliot was never the same again. 

Following the operation (which damaged his frontal lobe) Elliot lost his job, got divorced, and experienced numerous problems managing money. This led Elliot to declare bankruptcy. 

The Portuguese-American neuroscientist Antonio Damasio wrote a book on this particular tragedy called Descartes’ Error: Reason, Emotion and the Human Brain. The main case study in this book was that of Elliot.

Neuroscientist António Damásio

António_Damásio

Rational Thought Incorporates Emotion

Outwardly, Damasio discovered Elliot to be very pleasant and capable. Elliot even tested surprisingly well on numerous cognitive tests. 

“He was always controlled,” wrote Damasio, “always describing scenes as a dispassionate, uninvolved spectator.”

But on the inside, Elliot’s personal and financial life was in disarray. Planning had become incredibly difficult. What was going on? These problems, which seemed subtle, took over Elliot’s life. 

Damasio proceeded to test Elliot with pictures that would evoke intense emotional responses from most people. But Elliot’s reactions were indifferent. Damasio was astounded, and wrote of his reaction in his book

Damasio asked Elliot whether or not he would buy more or sell stock that he owned over a previous month if he knew the performance. Elliot answered as reasonably as any other rational investor would. This was a perplexing case, given that Elliot’s personal finances were in disarray. 

The question about this stock was very specific, and there were only a few outcomes presented to Elliot.

Emotion Assists the Brain When the Choices Are Vast

The problems with Elliot arose, Damasio discovered, when the potential list of outcomes was manifold rather than binary. He simply couldn’t contemplate an outcome where there were many possible choices, as there are in the stock market. 

So what does the human brain rely upon when the potential outcomes for a scenario are too vast for it to comprehend?

Emotion. The frontal lobe, or that part of the brain in Elliot which was not working correctly, is responsible for emotion. In Damasio’s words:

Final Word

We are emotional creatures. Period. So how can an emotional person invest successfully?

One course of action, as recommended by Pauline Yan, is to work with our emotions. 

Additionally, we can alter our patterns so emotion plays less of a role, like those CBOE traders putting upstairs when the market was open. 

Emotions are completely subjective, and finding a custom coping strategy for yourself will likely take time. Perhaps more important than psychology in trading is philosophy. Check out our article on The Philosophy of Trading here. 

At the end of the day, just know that “eliminating” emotion from your investment decisions is both impossible and undesirable. Even if you were able to take emotion out of your life, what fun would that be?!

Trading Psychology and Philosophy: Master Your Emotions

Parts of the brain: psychology

Without understanding the key roles that psychology and philosophy play in investing and trading, your monetary ambitions are doomed to fail. 

You may get lucky here and there, but unless you have conviction and mastery over the myriad of emotions the stock market awakens in most humans, failure is an inevitability.

Let’s jump right into it by comparing psychology and philosophy. 

   Highlights

  • Trader Psychology teaches us how our individual mind reacts to market conditions.
  • Trader Philosophy gives us the tools to overcome our psychological shortcomings.
  • The best teacher is personal experience.
  • Without a solid philosophical bedrock, psychology on its own helps traders little. 
  • Most successful investors have their own personal philosophy on life.

Psychology vs Philosophy

Trader Psychology
Trader Philosophy
Studies:
Human Behavior and Mental Processes
The Nature of Things
Relies On:
Observable Events
Broad and Unseen Events
Establishes:
What’s Wrong with Human Thought
What’s Right about Human Thought

Trader Psychology teaches us how our individual mind reacts to market conditions. Without an intuitive understanding of how our individual brains work, successful investing will be difficult and trading impossible. Being tuned into one’s own psychological makeup helps us better control our emotional response. This can help us become more disciplined and agile traders.

Trader Philosophy gives us the tools to overcome our psychological shortcomings. Incorporating philosophy into the trading process can help put a game plan into our trading and investing decisions. The result of trading philosophy is a firm grasp on and acceptant of risk tolerance, goals and market expectations. 

The world’s best traders are both psychologically aware and philosophically minded. When these two colors of thought get together, the resulting color is more often than not green. 

In this article, projectfinance takes a look at the link between psychology and philosophy in trading.

I believe trading to be more of an art than a science. Since philosophy is more artful than psychology, this article will focus primarily on how incorporating philosophy into our trading decisions (and life decisions) can make us more successful. 

Since we will be looking at trading philosophy as an art, we will not get into cut-and-dry topics of investment philosophy (risk-management, diversification, algorithmic trading, etc.) and behavioral finance. Instead, we will focus more liberally on philosophy as a school of thought.

A Trader Fails Miserably: A Case Study About Myself.

About a decade ago, I put a small trade on in my account. It was a well-thought-out trade. The market was a bit overheated, and volatility was cheap. I placed an options trade that would allow me to capitalize should the market become bearish. It was a high-reward, low-risk trade that I had used successfully before.

I calculated there would be about a 50% chance the market would sell-off by the end of the week. Just a mild selloff would provide my long volatility position with a profit of over 100%. I was comfortable with losing it all. 

If you have a 50% chance of making over 100%, isn’t that a good trade? I put a relatively small trade on Monday morning for options expiring on Friday. 

It was a well-thought-out trade. Had I stuck to my original plan, I would have indeed turned a very nice profit. 

But that’s not what happened. What actually did happen may very well be a great case study for a behavioral psychologist analyzing the irritation decisions of individual investors.

Doubling Down on a Losing Trade

Untitled design

By the end of the day Monday, the market sell-off did not come. I was in the red. 

Great – double down, right?

Tuesday morning the market opened higher. That’s ok, right? Double down again! 

Wednesday morning, the market opened higher yet again. With a little reluctance and less conviction, I doubled down again.

Guess what happened Thursday morning? The market opened higher, and I doubled down again.  

My position was becoming massive, to the point I couldn’t take my eyes off the trading platform, which blinked green, only green, all day long. 

And then came Friday. Guess what the market did on Friday? The bell went off, and S&P 500 futures opened up…higher. 

I threw in the towel. 

The market wasn’t going to sell-off. I was wrong. Had I only had my relatively small initial position on, I wouldn’t care. But the position had since grown to about 10 times its original size. 

Panic Trading 101

So since I was indeed wrong, wasn’t there still a way to break even on the mounting losses? Didn’t one of those ex CBOE traders sitting all around me once say “don’t fight the trend”?

Ok. It’s not too late.

I panicked and soon found a solution. Everybody at the trading desk around me was long and making money; why wasn’t I? Why can’t I just flip the position on its head and go long?

So that’s what I did. And I felt good about it. 

I was working at a trading desk at the time and decided to give my eyes a break and take a stroll around the office.

Ten minutes later, I saw from a coworker’s monitor a chart of the S&P 500. It appeared to be going down. I passed another screen on my walk; whatever chart he was looking at, it was going down too. I went to the restroom, splashed some water on my face then returned to my desk. 

We had about 100 TVs in the office, all playing CNBC. There was a “Breaking News” alert on all of these TVs:

“Breaking news!!! Markets Reverse gains in the last hour of trading; DOW down on the week.”

When the bell rang that Friday, I stared at my monitor with a white face and an open mouth:

“What the hell just happened?”

I was right! My original trade made a huge return! Where did that trade go? What happened? Mommy?

And that concludes the story of one of the worst trade management strategies in history.

The Philosophy of Trading (and Living)

I have personally found philosophy to be a panacea for my (mostly) benign psychological shortcomings. 

Shortly after moving to Chicago (and before the above trade happened), I had to take numerous FINRA exams. I snuck into a university library to study for these tests. 

During these long nights, I would sometimes take breaks and roam the philosophy section, taking a particular interest in the old Greek and Roman Stoics. It awoke something in me – it was vague but real. 

These authors were introduced to me by a college professor I once had. He was an old and eccentric man who was so in love with the old Greeks philosophers we couldn’t say the word “Greek” without getting misty-eyed. Truly! We as students, not having been through what he had been through, used to poke fun at him outside of class.

I returned to that library the Saturday morning after I lost my ass, but this time I was thirsty. I devoured the material that I could care less about in college, looking for some connection and solid ground; searching for the cure to my numerous psychological ailments. 

That was about 15 years ago, and on the other side of the monitor I write these words on is a small library of all those books of eternal wisdom I perused so long ago. From all the words of those old sages, I was able to create my own philosophy. Never have I since that day put on such a bad trade. I have had bad trades of course, but never that bad.

Philosophy is Greater than Psychology in Trading

You can analyze behavioral finance and trading psychology all day long, but without conviction and inspiration, your toolbox will be very prosaic and thin. 

There are innumerable psychological quirks that new and seasoned investors alike can experience. They are limited only by the infintestitude of the human mind. Let’s look at three trading sins I committed when I had that horrible week.

  1.  Fear of Missing Out (F.O.M.O.)  Trading
    • Fear that a trader feels when missing out on a potentially winning investment.
  2. Revenge Trading
    • When an investor forces trades to make up for a previous loss.
  3. Gambler’s Fallacy
    • Occurs when an investor believes an event is more or less likely to occur based on previous events. E.g., the belief a coin will land on heads if it landed on tails the past 5 times. 

Now, what are these but mere helpful words to describe trading psychology? Sure to be forgotten. They tell you what is wrong with living, but not how to correct oneself. If you have the roots of a  personal philosophy deeply planted, however, you will never have to worry about falling victim to any of the swaying branches of the innumerable psychological quirks and fallacies that plague the human condition.  

Trading Psychology Interpreted Through Philosophy

Shakespeare

Shakespeare

"...full of sound and fury, Signifying nothing."

machiavelli

Machiavelli

"Never was anything great achieved without danger."

Epectitus

Epictetus

"No man is free who is not master of himself."

Now let’s look at these fallacies through the lens of a few of my favorite philosophical minds

Machiavelli gives me the courage to place risk-on trades. Epictetus challenges me to not become a slave to my emotions. Shakespeare persuades me to avoid the noise of the events around me.

In other words, their advice is actionable rather than just vague definitions. 

With all that said, I believe one-off quotes are in themselves quite worthless. They are the equivalent of a cheat sheet. They have the soulful nourishment of a small fry from McDonald’s.  

Becoming adept at anything takes innumerable hours of patience and commitment. You have to work for it. None of the 49ers struck gold the first time they swung their pickaxe; they all had to dig through layers of barely penetrable strata. 

Where Trading Philosophy Comes From

I know millionaire traders who are honestly not that bright, and I have worked with surgeon day traders who lost boatloads of cash speculating on the markets. The differentiator of these two people is not that one understands the Gambler’s Fallacy and one does not; the difference is the former has their own personal brand of philosophy in life and the latter has none.

That isn’t to say that the successful traders I know spend their weekends in the philosophy department of libraries. 

Maybe they learned their philosophical code through difficult times or even the advice of an old relative or coworkers. Maybe it was as large as an 8 year Oxford education, or perhaps it came from something overheard by a passerby on Michigan Avenue. Who knows where they picked it up, it works, and that’s all that matters. 

I’m sure you know such people in your line of work. Think about one of these people you respect and admire for a moment.

What is it about them that inspires you? Chances are, it’s how they react to things. There’s also a good chance they were not always this way. Sage-like minds are not born, they’re made.

How Do You React Emotionally to the Stock Market?

How you react to an event is truly all that matters in investing and life. It’s the very definition of character. If I never had that horrific week of trading, I may have never developed my love for reading old philosophy, or any of the other literature I have enjoyed over the past 15 years. Nor would I have probably challenged me to become a successful trader. What’s the value of that?

Save death, it’s never what happens to you, but always how you react to the thing. Cliches exist for a reason; it’s generally because they work. If you squeeze hard enough you can almost always make lemonade out of lemons. 

Sometimes, after I have a particularly bad week in investing/trading, I’ll try to get an equivalent (arbitrary) monetary amount of culture and education from my city. I’ll roam a museum, or get a cheap seat at the orchestra, or just wander 20 miles until my legs collapse, then hop on the Chicago “El” with a numb smile and return home.

So next time some psychological quirk sends your trading account into a tailspin, try looking in the mirror to find out why, and make a plan as to what can be done.

Identifying Psychological and Philosophical Problems

 I have three specific people on my mind as I write this article. They are friends, some close, some not, but each one is currently, or has been in the past, very successful at trading options.

All three of these individuals have one train in common: they are all incredibly steady. 

It is very rare for any of them to get visibly angry under any circumstances. It is as though they all anticipated what was going to happen to them, no matter how positive or negative the outcome.

I was at an airport bar next to one of these individuals several years ago. I had heard earlier that day from other traders that he had had his best trading day ever. Retirement kind of money. 

I fished to get something out of him, but my hook came back empty every time. He never showed his cards. 

He had a contented look about him, but that was always there, no matter what the market was doing. What was he thinking? How can one not be celebrating in this situation? And who turns down a “Baby Guinness” shot!

Perhaps we can get a window into his mind by reading a quote from Paul Tudor Jones, one of the most successful traders the world has seen. 

This is easier said than done. I’m still working at it, but I’ve made progress. I can only gauge this progress by comparing my current self to the emotionally volatile trader I once was. 

A violent emotional reaction to an undesirable market event is a sure sign of psychological instability and philosophical bankruptcy. 

If this sounds familiar to how you react to a losing trade, you may need to do some introspection to turn things around. Turn your phone off from the insatiable noise of modernity. Take the time to get to know yourself. Do some walking; do some reading. It’s really that simple.

Final Word

To be a better trader, you need to learn to be a better thinker. This requires hard work. Mastering your emotions is easier said than done, and the only advice I can give with absolute certainty is that the answer won’t be found in a 2,000-word article on the internet. 

Trading and investing in the markets can be thought of as a war. If you have the right army (philosophy) you can conquer all the battles (psychology). 

Building the army is the hard part. You’ll know it only when you have it. If you rush it and dive into the markets without a mastery of yourself, you’ll get burnt. The vast majority of retail traders lose money, with 85% underperforming the benchmark.

Only when you have created a rock-solid philosophy on life and trading should you think about actively trading and investing. If you jumped the gun (like me), the process may be easier, as you have some empirical pain to build off of.

In the stock market, we must “know thy enemy”. The enemy is not a poor earnings report, faulty technical analysis, nor is it volatility; it’s ourselves. 

If you’re looking for inspirational reads on how to master the art of life and trading (they are synonymous), here are a few books that have helped me tremendously in life. If you have a kindle, they should all be free. All books published before 1924 are in the public domain now. If you dig a little, you should be able to find any books published before this date for free!

If you’d like to dive deeper into trading psychology, please check out our article, “Emotional Investing is Inevitable. Learn how to Cope.”

Book Recommendations

Wage Inflation and the Stock Market: 4 Investment Ideas in 2022

money falling

In a recent interview with CNBC, Jeffery Gundlach, AKA “The Bond King”, surprised investors with his minimal concern for commodity-based inflation. Gundlach doesn’t believe commodity inflation is here to stay but stressed particular concern about the sticky nature of wage inflation. 

In this article, projectfinance explores wage push inflation in detail. We will look at how rising wages played out in the 1970s, the current signs that wage inflation is here to stay into 2022, as well as review a few sectors that historically perform well during inflationary times. 

   Highlights

  • Wage push inflation could be a catalyst to broad inflation.
  • The 1970s showed us how bad wage push inflation can become. 
  • Lower labor force participation exasperates wage inflation.
  • Wages are soaring in 2021, particularly in retail. 
  • Gold, crypto, robotics, and emerging markets may be winners from US inflation.

Fewer Workers = Higher Prices

Just about every American who has left their homes in the past few months has seen the numerous “help wanted” signs peppering main streets. Because of enhanced unemployment benefits, health worries and child day-care concerns, the labor force participation rate has plummeted. The below chart from the St. Louis Fed shows us just how much. 

One of the results of this unprecedented exodus from the labor force is inflation. With less supply comes higher prices. Of particular concern is wage inflation, which may prove to be less transitory than, say, the price of a barrel of oil. Why?

It’s a lot easier for Chevron to decrease the price of a gallon of gasoline by a dollar than it is to decrease the hourly salary of that employee pumping the gas by the same amount. Wage inflation, as remarked about by Gundlach in an interview on CNBC, is “Hard to slow down once it starts.”

Gundlach on Wage Inflation

Wage inflation is dangerous because of its long-lasting, and wide-sweeping reverberations on overall inflation. If you have to pay your workers more, who is going to absorb that cost? Generally, (and if possible), those costs are pushed on to the general public in the form of increased prices. This leads to something called “wage push inflation”.

Every American who lived through the 1970s knows how this story plays out. 

If History Repeats Itself...

American prosperity soared during the 1960s. On the tail of this party came the great hangover of the 1970s, a decade in American history with unparalleled inflation and a stagnating stock market. Of particular concern during this time were skyrocketing wages. Take a look at the below graph from the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Wage Inflation 1950-1994

NERB: J. Bradford De Long

The economic setup that led to the above graph has an uncanny resemblance to the modern, post-pandemic boom. What makes today’s situation perhaps even direr is the artificial competition created by the government: in the 1970s, employers didn’t have to compete with massive stimulus packages. 

But that isn’t to say there was no government intervention during the 1970s. 

The Nixon administration failed quite miserably in its attempt to appease runaway inflation. These attempts may be seen as a portent of what may come in the modern economy. On August 15, 1971, during a televised address, Nixon proclaimed the following:

All increases in wages and prices would soon have to be approved by a board. Sound dictator-esque? 

As predicted by Milton Friedman, the president’s efforts were in vain. Prices continued to spiral out of control after the measures were removed. A run on the dollar followed. This precipitated doing away with the gold standard, which turned the dollar into a fiat currency (backed only by the promise of an economy). 

This isn’t to say these dire times will happen again. It is rare for history to actually repeat itself, but variations on a past theme are incredibly common. For today’s promenaders of both main street and wall street, notes of that old melody are certainly being heard.

Wages Soaring in 2021

The above chart, from the St, Louis Fed, shows the dramatic increase in hourly earnings for all employees in the US since the pandemic began (in yellow).

This image should give investors concern that inflation may not be temporary after all. Of particular worry are the Retail and Leisure/Hospitality industries. In 2021, these industries have accounted for half of the jobs added in 2021. 

Wages in the retail sector are up over 8% since their pre-pandemic levels. But these industries are still starved for employees. 

Monster bonuses and incredibly high starting wages are beginning to bring back workers, but not fast enough to ease enticing pay. For many employers, this increase in pay is not merited by an increase in profitability. Many businesses are hanging on by a thread simply to keep their doors open. 

As of right now, inflationary pressure on wages is reduced to a few sectors. The hope is that inflation will be contained, and, eventually (post-enhanced benefits) be abated altogether. 

But it certainly isn’t heading in the right direction, and all the right ingredients are in place for it to continue and spread. Here are a few of the more pertinent ones:

Recipe for Inflationary Disaster

  • Very strong demand for commodities and products/services
  • Broad shortage in supply
  • Money to Burn

So how long will wages remain elevated, and at what point will they curtail, if ever? 

All Eyes on September

On September 6th, 2021, enhanced unemployment benefits in the entire US will terminate. Though 25 states have already opted out of government aid, the largest states (including California, New York, and Illinois) will all be “on their own” beginning September 6th. 

How will this play out in the labor force? 

If there is a mad rush to get a job before the enhanced unemployment benefits end, what will that mean for wages? Will employers reduce starting salaries drastically? And if so, what about the wages of those employees who were hired during the boom? Will their salaries be reduced?

That is a tricky subject and a sure nightmare for HR professionals.

Companies will most likely be unable to keep salaries at their current levels for new employees. Additionally, the salaries of existing employees will likely go down or stagnate. All of this is a great recipe for deflation, which is often synonymous with a recession. 

But these are strange times.

The upward trend in wages is condensed to a few sectors. The worry is that the increase in wages will seep out into other sectors, and we truly won’t know how this will play out until post-September 6th.  Due to government interventions, all of the traditional gauges to measure inflationary risk are out of whack. 

It is also worth noting that we still have time until that deadline; that wage prices could continue their inexorable rise in the interim, making the situation even messier later on.

Wage Inflation and the Stock Market

Wage inflation can not stand by itself; a general increase in prices must follow. How else can producers pay elevated salaries?

Keeping in this vein of thought, projectfinance has combed through different sectors to find a few potential winners an inflationary economy may produce.

Wage Inflation Winners

Traditional winners of inflation have been tangible assets, particularly commodities and real estate. But both of these sectors are priced at frightfully high levels. If inflation comes off just a little bit, they could equally get squashed. 

So what other investments can you make to hedge your portfolio against inflation?

Gold

Relative to other inflation hedges, gold remains at a surprisingly low level. Take a look at the below chart, comparing the percentage return of Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) and SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).

Why such a massive discrepancy between two historically inflationary aligned products? Perhaps cryptocurrency has something to do with it. Let’s explore crypto next. 

Cryptocurrency

pexels-alesia-kozik-6765373

Photo by Alesia Kozik from Pexels

The market cap of gold is currently $11.50 trillion. The market cap of all cryptocurrencies is currently $1.25 trillion. This number reached nearly $2.5 trillion during the cryptocurrency euphoria of early 2021. It is very reasonable to assume that crypto has been stealing some of golds thunder. 

Though incredibly volatile, it may be a good time to invest in crypto as it is currently trading way off its highs. A bitcoin ETF makes it easier than ever. 

Another option could be investing in “stable coins”. Stable coins are much less volatile than other speculative cryptocurrencies because they are “pegged” to a fiat currency, typically the dollar. 

BlockFi is currently paying an interest rate of 7.5% on the popular Gemini stable coin (GUSD). 

Robotics/A.I.

Wage inflation will only precipitate the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Companies are beginning to discover they no longer require “someone” to fill a role, but “something”. Though scary, A.I. and the advancement of robotics are here to stay. A great robotics play ETF is ROBO, which is offered by ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF.

Emerging Markets

Emerging markets, though typically seen as the riskiest of equities, can sometimes be a great hedge against US stocks during inflationary times. That is if (and it’s a big if) inflation doesn’t spread on a global scale. 

Why? Inflation often leads to the devaluation of the currency. If the value of the US dollar goes down, that means dollar-denominated debt (which emerging economies are leaden with) will be cheaper. Lower borrowing costs leads to higher revenue.

If this is confusing, just think of it this way: would you rather pay interest on a dollar conversion of $1.50/ local currency or $1.30/local currency?

Additionally, emerging markets have been underperforming. They may have some catching up to do.

If you’d like great low-cost exposure to emerging markets, Vanguard’s FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) is a great option.

Wage Inflation Losers

Just as inflation has winners, there will be losers. 

Retail and Hospitality / Leisure

The most likely loser of inflation brought on by wages will probably be those sectors that are currently paying through the teeth for employees. Retail and hospitality, as well as leisure, are paying more than ever for labor because of what is being called “The Great Resignation“. Here are two good reasons to avoid investing in these businesses post-pandemic:

  1. In addition to these companies competing with the government for employee pay, they are also competing with motivation. More and more employees are leaving dead-end jobs to make a career for themselves.
  2. If inflation does persist post-pandemic, it will most like be the most “sticky” in this industry. Companies like Microsoft have not had to increase employees’ wages nearly as much as retail businesses like Darden Restaurants. 

Growth Stocks

Growth stocks are forward-looking in that they tend to earn the majority of their cash flow in the future. During inflationary times, this model historically underperforms the market.

Final Word

Wage push inflation is a real concern in 2021. Although many hope it will be transitory, the reality is lowering wages is much harder than lowering other prices. It will be important for investors to keep an eye on how things pan out post-enhanced benefits this fall to so they can adjust their portfolios accordingly.

To read more about inflation in 2021, make sure to read out article, Inflation and the Stock Market: 5 Sectors to Consider

What’s the Best Stock to Bond Ratio for Your Age?

One of the most difficult decisions investors can make in retirement planning is determining the bond/equity ratio they should have in their account and how that ratio should change as they age. 

Unfortunately, there is no cut-and-dry answer to this question. In this article, projectfinace has compiled a list of 5 of the most popular asset allocation strategies in 2022 for retirement-minded investors. Although there may not be a methodology on this list that suits your particular risk profile, hopefully, we can give you some ideas and inspirations to create your own personal strategy. 

Before we get started, I’d like to briefly touch upon the increasingly popular “target-date” retirement fund, offered by such companies as Fidelity and Vanguard.

TAKEAWAYS

  • The standard asset allocation method for years has been “100-Age”. The product tells us what percentage of retirement funds should go into stocks.
  • Warren Buffet recommends a “90/10” strategy, where 90% of assets are invested in stocks regardless of age.
  • “120-Age” is an updated version of the old “100-Age” rule. This accounts for people living longer.
  • A more modern idea, and perhaps the most popular, suggests investing 100% in equities until the age of 40, then gradually tapering off into fixed securities.

Target-Date Retirement Funds

Target-date retirement funds are exploding. Last year, their total assets under management surpassed one trillion dollars. The amount of inflows doesn’t appear to be slowing down. These funds have become, for many, a huge sigh of relief. Most of my friends don’t know the difference in risk between small-cap and mid-caps stocks; between emerging and international stocks.  Target-date funds can be a godsend for those with little interest in a more hands-on approach to investing

In the long run, target-date funds may very well be the best option. Fidgeting in retirement accounts is not recommended. 

However, If you’re anything like myself, the idea of putting your entire IRA and 401k into a single target-date retirement fund makes you a little uncomfortable.

The “DIY” Approach

I prefer using mostly stock and bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in a hands-on approach. This gives me the ability to increase my retirement allocation in stocks during downturns, as well as make periodic adjustments to the various market-cap weights (mid-cap, small-cap, and large-caps) that I’m holding. If the market is constantly reaching all-time highs, I like having the option to take some profits. I rarely make a move, but I prefer being in charge of my diversification. There is also the distinct possibility I’m a control freak. 

I am confident in my investment decisions and have the conviction to see them through. The one uncertainty I used to have was knowing whether or not my stock/equity to bonds ratio was what it should be. Over the years, I have read up on numerous methodologies and ultimately found the one that suited me best. 

In this guide, we’re going to explore some of the more popular retirement allocation strategies. Hopefully, by the end, you’ll find a diversification class that suits your risk profile.

1) 100 Minus Age Rule

If you have any financially savvy seniors in your family, chances are you have heard the old “100 minus your age” adage before. This rule is very straightforward; simply subtract whatever your age is from 100 and voila! That is the percent of retirement funds you should have in stock. The rest go into bonds.

If you’re 30, this formula says you should have (100-30) 70% of your retirement fund in stocks. If you’re 60, you should therefore have 40% of your retirement in equities, and the remainder in bonds, money markets, and other investments deemed safer.  

However, this formula no longer works. Why?

Americans Are Living Longer

In 1950, life expectancy for the average American was 68 years. In 1975, that number rose to 72. The current American can expect to roam this blue sphere for 78.7 years, 270 days, two hours, and forty minutes. Mark your calendar.  

So since the old formula no longer makes sense, why do we continue to use it?

There are two reasons, neither of which are legitimate.

  1. The formula is simple.  Simple sayings have staying power. What is more simple than 100-age? It’s so easy and so obvious – how can it possibly be wrong?
  2. There will never be a “correct” formula.  The 100-age rule will never be proven incorrect because there will never be a “correct” retirement allocation rule. Why? No two investors are going to retire at the same moment, just as no two investors are going to die at the same time (pardon my morbidity).

So if this formula is broken in 2021, what works?

2) 90/10 Strategy: Warren Buffet Says...

Warren Buffet
By Aaron Friedman - https://www.flickr.com/photos/9887729@N03/4395161160/, CC BY 2.0,

Warren Buffet has his own allocation suggestion, which is a 90/10 ratio of equities to bonds. This stock heavy ratio does not discriminate with age but stays true from the first day of your employment to the very last. 

“It is a terrible mistake for investors with long-term horizons,” the Oracle of Omaha said in 2017, “to measure investment ‘risk’ by their portfolio’s ratio of bonds to stocks.”

He went on to say that the nature of high-grade bonds actually increases portfolio risk. What he doesn’t mention, however, is peace of mind; could you sleep well on the eve of your retirement with 90% of your savings in stocks?  

Probably not. But that isn’t to say you are limited to these almost polar opposite approaches to risk when investing for retirement.

3) 120 minus your age

Perhaps the most widely accepted approach to retirement asset allocation in 2021 is a revamp of the old rule “100 minus Age”. 

Instead of subtracting your age from 100, this new formula suggests subtracting your age from 110 or even 120. This takes into account the longer lifespans of Americans.

If I subtract my current age of 37 from 120, that number tells me I should have 83% of my retirement assets inequities. Given how long American’s are living, most investment professionals would agree this rule better suits modernity than the antiquated 100 minus age rule.

4) 100% Stocks Until You're 40

A modern idea gaining traction suggests investing 100% of your retirement fund in stocks until you reach the age of 40. This is assuming you plan on retiring around 70, give or take a few years. Does this seem reckless? Perhaps, but the numbers show otherwise.

Over time, the stock market recovers from recessions and depressions. Take the Great Depression for example. It took the US stock market 25 years to recover and breach new highs following this period. For The Great Recession of 2007-2008, the stock market only took 4 years to recover.

What do both of these black swans have in common? Both recovery times were under 30 years, which is the time horizon most investors would until retirement when they invest all of their retirement funds into stocks before reaching 40 years of age.

Looking at the Numbers

If you’re like me, you would prefer to see the numbers rather than the narrative. Let’s next take a look at the historical performance of stocks, Treasury Bills, Treasury Bonds, and corporate bonds (rated Bbb). 

The NYU Stern School of Business provided a phenomenal data table comparing the historical returns of these various categories.  I went through the list and compiled my own table on the performance of these different categories, adjusted for inflation, over different time periods. Take a look below.

Inflation-Adjusted Returns

5-Year Real Return
10-Year Real Return
30-Year Real Return
S&P 500 (includes dividends)
13.56%
12.35%
9.55%
US Treasury Bill (3-Month)
-0.88%
-1.26%
0.11%
US Treasury Bond (10- Year)
2.98%
2.80%
3.99%
Baa Corporate Bond
6.64%
5.56%
6.20%

Clearly, investing in broad-based stock indexes such as the S&P 500 has proven the better option for long-term investors. This includes all of the volatility of the past 30 years, not limited to the Early 2000s Recession, the Financial Crisis, and the pandemic.

But that said, who knows what the future has in store? History does not always repeat itself.

5) Vanguard's Target Date Allocations

We mentioned earlier in this article a great alternative to DIY investing: Target Date Funds. 

Vanguard is one of the most popular companies in this arena. So what equity allocation do they choose?

Vanguard Target Date Allocations

From the image above, we can see that Vanguard’s “Phase 1”, which includes investors up to the age of forty, has an equity (stock) allocation of 90%. Up until that age, Vanguard appears to mirror Warren Buffet’s approach. 

I bet that high stock allocation number would surprise a lot of 401k employees participating in this fund. 

If we were to go off of the “100 minus age” rule, the equity allocation for an investor 40 years of age would be only 60% invested in stocks. When you’re talking dozens of years, that 30% difference could easily add up to millions of dollars. 

If we look at “Phase 4” of Vanguard’s investment strategy, we see that investors aged 72-92 still have a considerable equity exposure of 30%. 

Following that age, Vanguard very reasonably begins to curtail the risk.

Final Word

So which retirement asset allocation strategy is best for you? This decision would be a whole lot easier if we had a crystal ball. 

I will say this – risk-averse investors rarely add into their calculations the cost of not participating in the equity market.

Remember the negative performance of Treasury Bills from the above graph? With inflation factored in, it’s very possible for investors to actually lose money on a yearly basis when they forego stocks.

The post-pandemic recovery has proven this, and should be enough motivation for stock-market-jittery investors to take on more risk.

Recommended Articles

QYLD vs NUSI vs DIY: Which Options ETF Strategy is Best?

QYLD vs NUSI vs DIY: Which Options ETF Strategy is Best?

2022 is proving to be another volatile year. During uncertain markets, it can be wise to diversify your portfolio to both protect profits and generate income from a sideways market. Options based ETFs may provide investors opportunity here.

This article assumes the reader has a basic understanding of options trading. If you are new to derivatives, it may help to start by comparing stocks to options

Additionally, understanding the fundamental difference between calls and puts will be important as well. 

TAKEAWAYS

  • QYLD utilizes the “covered call” approach on the Nasdaq 100

  • NUSI utilizes the “protective collar” approach on the Nasdaq 100 

  • QYLD pays a higher dividend than NUSI

  • Both ETFs will may in a bullish market

Option Trading Enters the Mainstream

Stocks vs Options

Option-based ETFs have been soaring in popularity recently. Why? The average investor is becoming savvier. Before we start putting Global X’s QYLD ETF and Natiowide’s NUSI ETF under the microscope, let’s take a quick look at what’s been going on in the options markets.

An Explosion in Option Activity

Date from CBOE.com; image from ft.com

When sports betting came to a screeching halt on the tail of the pandemic, risk-takers went searching for other ways to appease their insatiable appetite for gambling. It didn’t take long for them to discover a viable, even seemingly legitimate alternative – options trading

In 2020, a record 7.47 billion options contracts were traded. That’s about one contract per human on Earth. A lot of money was made and lost over the past year in options markets. In the eye of the mainstream media, options trading has become synonymous with gambling. 

Judging from the way most of these new traders utilize the leverage that comes with options trading, their analysis would be correct. The vast majority of these “Robinhood” traders are known in the industry as “premium buyers”.

Premium Buyer Example

An example of a premium buyer is a trader who buys, or “goes long”, a call option on Apple (AAPL). AAPL is currently trading at $135/share. If an option trader believes the price of AAPL will rise to $145 by next month, they could purchase a call option today for that corresponding expiration (we’ll say July 30th expiration since today is June 30th) for a premium of $1.89. 

In order for that customer to break even on this trade, AAPL would need to rally to $146.89 in 30 days. This number is the summation of the strike price (145) plus the premium paid ($1.89). The stock needs to go from $135 to $ 146.89 in one month just for that trader to break even. That’s an increase in the price of about 8%. What are the odds AAPL rises 8% in 30-days? Not great.

Using Options to Hedge Risk

Today, the vast majority of options are used as vehicles for market speculation. 

This was not the original intent of options trading when the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) was created in the 1970s. On the contrary actually: stock and index derivatives were actually created as a way for market participants to mitigate risk. 

Two such risk-reduction strategies are the covered call and the collar. These strategies are utilized in Global X’s NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD) and Nationwide’s Risk-Managed Income ETF (NUSI), respectively.

Many investors bundle these ETFs together as the same. This would be a mistake. 

There is an ocean of differences between the two. The most important difference is perhaps risk: QYLD has a lot more risk than NUSI. 

Why? Let’s break down both of these ETFs so we can better understand the strategies used. 

If you already have a working understanding of options, we are going to also examine how a savvy investor can avoid the fees of these ETFs and create a covered call and/or collar position on their own.

Global X, the parent of the Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD), defines its buy-right (covered-call) strategy as follows:

What does this mean? The fund simply buys the stocks within the Nasdaq 100 and sells monthly index (NDX) at-the-money calls against these stocks. Since it tracks the Nasdaq 100, we can use the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX), or the Invesco QQQ ETF interchangeably as benchmarks. The Nasdaq is composed of primarily growth companies, which is another name for low dividends. 

However, the QYLD provides an exceptionally high dividend yield of 12.46%. How is this possible? The fund generates income by selling calls on the index.

Notice the benchmark QYLD tries to replicate. What is interesting about the “BuyWrite Index”, as well as QYLD, is the strike price of the calls they sell. Unlike traditional covered calls, this fund sells calls that are at-the-money. This strategy gives them little upside room in a bull market. The below is taken from the funds “factsheet”.

Let’s take a closer look at how covered calls work before we continue. 

How a Covered Call Works

covered call is a financial transaction in which investors write call options against shares they already own (100 shares per contract). As long as the stock price stays below the strike price of the call sold, an investor will collect the full premium of the option sold. 

Below are two potential reasons why an investor would use this strategy.

Collect Income: If an investor doesn’t believe a stock they own will rise to a certain point by a certain time, they can sell a call option at this strike price and collect the premium received as income.  

Target an Exit Price: If an investor wishes to sell a stock once it reaches a certain level, they can sell a call at this corresponding strike price. Once the stock breaches this level, they will be “called out” of their long shares.

For investors using the covered call as a means of income generation (first example), they will sell a call at a strike price that they don’t believe the stock will reach. 

If an investor wishes to sell their stock in the future, they are more likely to sell a call that is closer to being at-the-money, which will act similar to a limit sell order (second example).  When the stock reaches that point, their call will be assigned and they will sell their stock. In the meantime, they sit back and collect the income.

The below image is a traditional chart for a covered call that incorporates an out-of-the-money call, where “X” represents the strike price of the call sold. 

The QYLD Approach

QYLD uses a different method. They sell at-the-money calls. When you sell an at-the-money call, you greatly limit upside stock potential. That being said, the premium you collect for an at-the-money call is far greater than the premium you receive for out-of-the money calls. 

The below represents a chart for a covered call with the sold call being slightly out-of-the money. In reality, the at-the-money green line will be below this line for the at-the-money strategy, but it helps to give you an idea of the structure. 

This graph shows that QYLD should benefit greatly in a neutral market. 

Does the greater premium received by selling an at-the-money call make up for the loss in potential price appreciation? In theory, QYLD was designed to generate income, not appreciate in price. That being said, let’s see how the fund has historically performed in relation to the Nasdaq 100 (as represented by QQQ) by comparing them in Y Charts.

QYLD in a Bear Market

The above chart compares the total returns of QYLD vs QQQ. That means QYLD’s fat dividend is included.

Note that we are comparing QYLD to the QQQ ETF and not its true benchmark, the CBOE NASDAQ-100® BuyWrite. This is a rather esoteric index, and we thought it better to compare QYLD to the unhedged stocks which it tracks. 

What is concerning in this chart comparing QYLD to its representative ETF, QQQ, is how poorly QYLD performed on the tail of the pandemic. QYLD took a very large hit, and has only now, over a year later, just barely recovered. Meanwhile, QQQ has been soaring. 

Selling covered calls is a great strategy for a market that is either stagnating, minorly bullish, or in a minor correction. When a doomsday scenario hits, like the pandemic, QYLD doesn’t do that much better than its benchmark on the downside. For an ostensibly risk-hedged position, I’d expect more protection.

Why such limited downside protection in a seemingly volatility resilient ETF? The downside protection on QYLD is limited to the premium received from the covered call. Once the market falls by that relatively small amount, you lose money on a penny-for-penny basis with the index.

QYLD in a Bull Market

Not only did QYLD merely mirror the QQQ losses when the pandemic hit, but it also failed to partake in the recovery. We can see this in the area to the right of the dip circled above. Why? The calls that the fund sold were a ballast to the upside potential. When you sell a call, your upside is limited to strike price + premium sold. When the QQQs had some of their huge 5%+ upside months during the pandemic, this fund was limited to a fraction of these gains.

The Future of QYLD?

We are living in strange times. Will market volatility ever subside? If not, QYLD may prove to be a poor investment. We have already proven the fund performs poorly in both very volatile times as well as bull markets. 

But let’s say the market does calm down. Many analysts believe the stock market is due for a breather. During a neutral market (which we haven’t seen much of since the fund’s inception) this fund may prove to be very lucrative, surpassing even the total return of the QQQs. 

But will that happen? Who the heck knows!

Let’s next take a look at Nationwide’s NUSI fund, which is by far a much more interesting ETF.

Nationwide’s Risk-Managed Income ETF (NUSI) is a relatively new ETF to the scene, with a fund inception date of December 2019. It is a true capital preserving and income-focused fund with a very low expense ratio (considering the work performed) of 0.68%. 

Here is how Nationwide defines its fund:

Does that sound too good to be true? Perhaps, but they’ve had a heck of a good run thus far; a 7.89% dividend yield with outstanding downside protection is nothing to sneeze at. How do they do it?

Nationwide’s NUSI ETF has a lot in common with QYLD, with one important difference; NUSI has substantial downside protection. Both QYLD and NUSI provide a source of income by selling calls against the Nasdaq 100, but NUSI goes one step further and buys a put to further hedge downside risk.

This strategy, which involves selling a call and buying a put in combination with long stock, is called a “Protective Collar”. 

Let’s take a moment to see how the protective collar works before we continue.

How a Protective Collar Works

The difference between the collar chart above (representing NUSI) and the covered call graph (representing QYLD) is that the red, loss line flattens out with the collar. You’ll notice that the strike price of the long put (X) protects the fund from catastrophic losses. The QYLD ETF, on the other hand, can in theory go to zero. Protective collars, therefore, are a true risk-defined strategy, whereas the covered call provides minimal downside protection.

"Costless" Collar

A collar position can be established so that the premium collected from the short call pays for the long put protection. This is called a “costless” collar because the put doesn’t cost us extra money. Sometimes, you can even collect more from the short call than you pay for the put. 

In this case, you are going to receive a net credit from the transaction. That is how NUSI trades collars and is the reason for their generous dividend yield of 7.89%.

I just went through NUSI’s holdings and was able to locate the two current positions constituting their collar:

  • Short NDX July 16 14,600 Call for a net credit of 78.45
  • Long NDX July 16 12,775 Put for a net debit of 17.30

The net credit here is 78.45-17.30 = 61.15.

And there’s your dividend. 

2 Advantages of NUSI over QYLD

In addition to having greater protection, NUSI has several more advantages over QYLD. Here are two.

Manager Discretion: A potential advantage of NUSI when compared to QYLD is the discretion the managers have. We’ll remember that QYLD uses a formulaic approach to selling. They sell at the money call options 30 days out. That’s it. NUSI gives their managers more control here. They are not very transparent about the methodologies, but this discretion appears to be working to the fund’s advantage.

Moneyness Structure: NUSI sells out of the money calls (and buys out of the money puts). This call selling strategy gives them more room on the upside when compared to QYLD, which sells at-the-money calls. The 7.89% dividend yield is produced by selling calls that are further out of the money than the puts which are bought. 

Let’s next take a look at how the very young NUSI performs over various market cycles. 

NUSI in a Bear Market

NUSI vs QYLD vs QQQ Total Returns
NUSI vs QYLD vs QQQ Total Returns

Nationwide’s NUSI is a young fund. It has only truly been tested once, during the pandemic (the orange line in the red circle above). When compared to QYLD and QQQ, it performed superfluously well. The long put hedged the fund against the steep losses the NDX incurred. NUSI performed just beautifully.

I wonder how NUSI will perform over a longer, less volatile bear market. Since it seems to be an adaptive fund, only time will tell.

NUSI in a Bull Market

I was surprised to see that QYLD did not vastly outperform NUSI during the past year. During this time, QQQ skyrocketed (as you can see in blue). Since NUSI is buying puts, shouldn’t that be a drag on their performance relative to QYLD, which doesn’t buy puts at all, but only sells calls?

A possible reason for the superior performance of NUSI could be in the strike price of the calls sold. QYLD, you will remember, sells at-the-money calls. These calls drastically limit upside potential and prevents the ETF from participating in large rallies, as the QQQs have seen this year. 

NUSI, on the other hand, sells out-of-the-money calls. This gives them more wiggly room on the upside.

A possible reason for the superior performance of QYLD could be in the strike price of the calls sold. QYLD, you will remember, sells at-the-money calls. These calls prevents the ETF from participating in large rallies, as the QQQs have seen this year. 

The Future of NUSI?

It is far too early to tell how NUSI will play out in the years to come. NUSI was created only in late 2019. We know it performs well in very volatile times and holds its own in bull markets. But how adaptive will it be if and when markets calm down? Since the managers have some discretion here, it’s completely in their hands.

It should be noted that the volatility of 2022 has taken a large chunk out of NUSI’s value.

The DIY Approach

For all they provide, the expense ratios for both NUSI and QYLD are exceptionally low. If you were to replicate these strategies on your own, not only would you need the options expertise, but you would also have to pay commissions on options contracts, which adds up over time. Additionally, you’ll need a lot of money.

Both NUSI and QYLD buy every individual stock within the Nasdaq 100 – can you imagine how much time and money this would take to do on your own? 

Additionally, there are more risks involved when trading options on your own, such as “pin risk” (when the stock closes right at your strike price on expiration), as well as “dividend risk”, which you always have to keep an eye on when you’re selling calls. 

That said, there is nothing preventing you from doing a covered call or a collar on a broad ETF such as QQQ. The at-the-money call selling that QYLD utilizes is not for everyone. If you did it on your own, you could sell that call a little further out of the money, thus making your position slightly more bullish. 

If you’d like to learn more about trading covered calls and collar positions on your own, please check out our videos below!

Collar Tutorial

Covered Call Tutorial

Even if you decide to not go the DIY route, the covered call and collar strategy are nonetheless great strategies to have in your toolbox. Covered calls are a fantastic way to earn extra income in a sideways market; collars can be beneficial to hedge individual stocks against times of high volatility, such as earnings.

Conclusion

So far, NUSI appears to be the winner over QYLD, but that could all change rapidly. I have a feeling we are going to be seeing a lot more ETFs based on options strategies in the near future. If neither of these fit your risk profile, there should be plenty more coming down the pipeline soon. 

Happy trading.

Additional Resources

Inflation and the Stock Market in 2022: 6 Sectors to Consider

Inflation's Economic and Human Impact

In 2021, financial news headlines have been dominated by one word: inflation. All indicators point to his trend continuing throughout 2022 as well. 

Inflation can be defined quite simply as a broad increase in prices. What prices are we talking about here? Everything. From the orange juice in your glass to the rubber on your tires. When the tidal wave of inflation comes, it lifts nearly everything in its path. 

The dangers of inflation on human lives are real, particularly for the elderly.

Generally speaking, a person’s income becomes more fixed as they age. Americans in their twilight years may be relying completely on the income from fixed securities. The danger here comes when the cost of living surpasses the income received. What will a retired senior citizen do when the interest they receive on investments can’t keep up with prices; what will they cut out when their weekly budget for groceries rises suddenly from $100/week to $150/week?

 *The above chart from the St. Louis Fed shows the decline in purchasing power which occurred during the 1970’s. Are we headed there again?

The elderly are not the only ones at elevated risk during times of rising prices; the poor are also disproportionately hurt by inflation as well. Inflation is sometimes referred to as a tax on the poor for this reason. 

Inflation Advantages

With that being said, inflation brings with it some upside as well. Moderate inflation is even encouraged. Inflation can increase wages, lower unemployment, and spur economic growth. When confronted with the choice between “deflation” (a general decline in prices) and “Inflation”, economists will always choose inflation, so long as it’s moderate

Moderate inflation is normal and healthy. Can you imagine if a Hershey’s chocolate bar still “cost a nickel”?

What concerns us here is what happens when inflation rises above the Federal Reserve’s recommended level of 2% or below.

This level was recently breached, and a lot of powerful heads are turning. What are they watching? 

Before we continue, let’s take a look at a few potential economic cons that excessive inflation brings.

Excessive Inflation Economic Cons

  • A wide increase in prices often leads to greater economic uncertainty
  • Cost of Borrowing Increases
  • Personal Savings decline in proportion to increasing prices
  • Broad decrease in purchasing power
  • Excessive inflation can trigger a recession

So this is what could happen if excess inflation hits our economy, but are we headed in that direction presently? That is the million-dollar question.

Is Inflation Coming?

If inflation has been the financial word of the year in 2021, then the word “transitory” comes in second place. 

That is the word Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, used to describe the most recent rise in prices in the US. Take a moment to examine the chart below from The US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which illustrates the historical percentage change in two CPI (Consumer Price Index) metrics. This index measures changes in the price level of a weighted average market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households.

What concerns investors here is the far right side of the chart. There has been an obvious jump in prices, but, at the moment, it doesn’t appear overly threatening. Investors, however, aren’t concerned about its current level: they’re concerned about where it could potentially go. 

This uncertainty has been the catalyst to recent market volatility. Who’s to say it won’t keep going up? Can anyone guarantee inflation won’t reach those levels seen in the early 1980s, triggering all those “Inflation Cons” we looked at above?

Ominous Signals

A study conducted by the University of Michigan recently found that consumer expectations for overall price changes jumped from 3.4% to 4.6% last month. The director of the program, Richard Curtin, stated that this was, “biggest rise in inflation concerns the study has found over the last 50 years.”

That is concerning. However, Curtin also believes that a strong job and income outlook could help to offset portions of the rising inflation sentiment. 

When it’s all said and done, Jerome Powell’s hope that the current bout of inflation will be “transitory” appears less likely. The market has been relatively resilient to the latest increase in inflation, but how much higher can the market go before some investors start throwing in the towel, and will they at all?

Inflations Impact on Stocks

So what are the effects of inflation on the stock market? Broadly speaking, stocks tend to do well during periods of high inflation. That is a very generalized statement. Though inflation is very easy to define, the economic repercussions of inflation are manifold. 

In theory, an increase in price should result in an increase in revenue, thereby elevating stock prices. The danger comes when input prices increase at a rate greater than revenue. If an orange juice manufacturer is paying more for oranges than they are selling the juice for, that’s no good for business.

Another component to factor in when examining inflation is the market cycle. If inflation occurs during a market expansion (as we are currently in) stocks generally perform well. 

But what if we were in a recession when inflation hit? The US experienced an awful period of “stagflation” during the 1970s. Stagnation occurs when high inflation combines together with high unemployment and stagnant demand. The market performed so horribly during this time of inflation that stockbrokers were known as “waiters”. 

But we are not in a recession today. Quite the opposite actually. With the exception of a few hiccups (labor and inventory shortages), the United States has roared back to life as never before. Even with the inflation fears, the S&P 500 is at a record high as I write this article. 

Red Flags

With all that being said, there are clouds on the horizon. Rising yields and Fed tapering are two red flags that could precipitate inflation. Both of these factors are broadly considered to be negative for equities in general. Yet, stocks continue to climb. 

So which stocks will perform the best in this environment?

Before we explore a few trade ideas to help hedge your portfolio against inflation, it is important to note the already elevated price of many of these securities

Premium for Inflation Hedges

In mid-2021, inflation hedged assets are not a novel idea. Money has been pouring into these securities for the past few months in anticipation of rising inflation, thus driving up the prices. If you decide to diversify your portfolio to include inflation hedges, it’s important to know that if inflation does not meet the lofty prices expected by many, these securities could very well lose more money than the overall market. 

In other words, it’s likely your “hedge” could cost you much more than if you had no protection at all. 

But if you’re of the “better late than never” mentality, here are a few sectors and stocks which tend to hold their own during inflationary times.

1) Consumer Staples

Consumer staples tend to perform well during times of rising prices. Staples consist of goods and services which are used on a daily basis, such as clothing and food. People are willing to pay up for essentials (because they have no choice), and the companies producing these goods and services can therefore pass on their increased input costs to the customer. Here are a few of the more popular stocks and ETFs in this sector.

 

Consumer Staple Stocks

  • WalMart (WMT)
  • Procter & Gamble Co. (PG)
  • General Mills Inc. (GIS)

 

Consumer Staple ETFs

2) Commodities

Commodities are often thought to be a leading indicator of inflation because they represent the building blocks of an economy. A cereal company such as General Mills would never dramatically increase the price of a box of Cheerios unless the cost of oats was soaring. In that vein of thought, commodities can be thought of as an extension to consumer staples, in that these staples are composed primarily of commodities. You don’t have to look far to see how these two sectors connect – even the cost of your toilet paper has gone up recently because of skyrocketing wood and lumber prices.

Commodity Stocks

  • Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)
  • West Fraser Timber (WFG)

Commodity ETFs

3) Gold

Though technically a commodity in itself, gold gets its own section on this list because of its historically superior performance during inflationary periods. Though lately gold has been losing some of its luster due to the rise of cryptocurrency and bitcoin ETFs like ProShares BITO

To keep up with rising costs, governments often print money. When you have more of anything, its value goes down. Investors frequently flock to gold during these times because of its scarcity. You can’t print bullion as you can a dollar bill. 

Gold Stocks

  • Newmont Corporation (NEM)

  • Barrick Gold Corp (GOLD)

Gold ETFs

4) Real Estate

Investors in real estate tend to do better during times of inflation than the market in general. Property prices tend to rise with inflation. With an increase in property prices comes an increase in rent. This scenario just adds to why many call inflation a tax on the poor. 

That being said, real estate prices are at the moment extremely high. As noted in the Wall Street Journal, this tactic may backfire.

Real Estate Stocks

  • Simon Property Group (SPG)

  • PulteGroup, Inc (PHM)

Real Estate ETFs

Additionally, you can direct in Real Estate Investment Trusts. You can learn more about equity REITs and mortgage REITs in our article here. 

5) Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)

In a normal, mild inflationary environment, bonds are a great investment. They offer a reliable source of relatively low-risk income. During times of high inflation, however, bonds are notorious for their poor performance. Since the value of money is going down, so is the value of the interest we receive on bonds. What good is a 2% yield on a bond if inflation is growing at 5%? 

This is when TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) ETFs come in handy. These kinds of securities take into account cost-of-living increases and adjust their principle values right along with inflation. It is also worth noting that when prices begin to decrease, these types of bonds will underperform more traditional bonds

TIPS ETFs

6) Healthcare

Last on our list in the healthcare sector. Why? Healthcare demand is largely immune to inflationary pressures. Big pharma and biotech stocks alike should remain resilient (if not thrive) while other sectors are struggling with rising prices. 

Bankrate has produced a great list of healthcare ETFs. Here are a few of the highlights from this list:

Healthcare ETFs

Final Word

Nobody can say for certain where inflation will be in two months, let alone three years down the road. The media has been engaged in a months-long tug-of-war on the subject, and no winners have emerged yet. Inflation has indeed been rising, but it is too soon to tell whether it will rise high enough to affect the markets materially. 

When making adjustments to your portfolio, try to not only consider what you may gain by making adjustments for inflation but also what you may lose in any specific sectors should inflation indeed prove transitory.

5 High Dividend, Low Volatility ETFs

In the stock market, peace of mind is hard to come by these days. 2022 is shaping up to be an even more volatile year that last year. 

For investors who have had enough of the volatile swings, it would be nice to have a portion of your portfolio a.) receiving dividend income no matter what happens in the market and, b.) invested in a few stocks that don’t make your heart drop or race every time you check your account balance. 

Before we get into the 5 pics, let’s take a moment to examine why high dividend, low volatility exchange-traded funds (ETFs) make sense.

Low Volatility ETFs/Stocks

A time-old expression regarding money states that higher risk = higher return. If the “low volatility anomaly” is correct, this adage may be broken, at least in the US stock market. The research behind this anomaly argues that low volatility stocks actually outperform their higher-beta peers over large periods of time. Sounds counterintuitive right? Maybe like something the most boring guy in the pub might say after a few beers? 

That may be, but the low volatility anomaly theory has actually been proven

Let’s take a look at a few reasons to explain why this anomaly exists.

1. Investors Are Irrational

Believing high beta stocks will vastly outperform more boring, low beta stocks, market participants often ignore the fundamentals and overpay for popular stocks. Just think about Tesla (TSLA) or Gamestop (GME) here. When these equities correct themselves, the buyer will never get back that heavy premium they paid to buy-in. Meanwhile, the turtle has passed the hare.

2. The Margin Factor

Many investors don’t have access to margin. They believe investing in riskier assets will pay off to make up for this lack of margin. Over time, these buyers also inflate the premium of risk heavy equities. 

3. Limit to Arbitrage

So since this anomaly exists, why don’t market participants expose this irrational risk demand to turn a profit? Perhaps they would, but large portfolio managers have a benchmark, or a mandate to beat, and these benchmarks (such as the S&P 500) are frequently weighted heavily by very volatile equities.

High Divided Paying ETFs/ Stocks

So now we know why low volatility stocks are great, what about dividend-paying stocks? Well, aside from the obvious dividend, they too outperform! 

Morgan Stanley has proven that from 1991 to 2015, dividend-paying stocks had an average annual return of 9.7%. Compare that to non-dividend paying stocks, which earned only 4.18% during the same period. Did your world just get blown?

But we’re not concerned about just stocks; we’re interested in what happens when the best ones get together and form a family. Without further ado, here are projectfinances 5 great high dividend, low volatility ETFs.

1. Legg Mason Low Volatility High Div ETF - LVHD

Legg Mason’s Low Volatility High Dividend ETF is a great choice for truly risk-conscious investors. Why? Not only do the stocks within this fund meet the criteria to be on this list, but they are also diversified across numerous asset class categories. 

In today’s increasingly diverging markets, it is important to have exposure to everything. Just think about what tech stocks did early on in the pandemic, and how later, when the reopening was being staged, industries left them in the dust. 

If you were in the wrong sectors during this time, your portfolio definitely felt the hit. The LVHD ETF uses the Russell 3000 as its benchmark, which represents 98% of the public equity market in the US. However, the LVHD ETF currently only has 80 equities within it. The fund picks and chooses across the market cap spectrum only those stocks that meet their criteria; fat dividends and low risk.

The dividend yield of LVHD is also the highest on our list, coming in at an eye-opening 2.93% yield. The fees are also minuscule, with the average ETF fee hovering around 0.40%, LVHD crushes it with their low 0.27% expense ratio.

For the low volatility-seeking investor, LVHD could quite literally pay off some very nice dividends down the road.

LVHD Top Holdings

Consumer Staples: 23.51 %

Real Estate: 14.12 %

Utilities: 14.03 %

Health Care: 13.41 %

Industrials: 13.37%

2. ProShares Russell 2000 Dividend Growers- SMDV

Next on our list is ProShares Russell 2000 Dividend Growers ETF, SMDV. This ETF focuses on high dividend-paying stocks within the small-cap category. ProShares is very strict as to what companies get invited to be on their list: not only do the companies within this fund currently pay dividends, but they all have been doing so for at least the past 10 consecutive years. 

Such companies with a track record of dividend-paying more often than not are more stable than their more volatile small-cap peers. 

Another reason investing in SMDV may be a good idea for the low volatility-seeking investor is its low beta of 0.80 percent. Comparatively, The beta of IWM, one of the most popular ETFs in the small-cap space, is 1.27. 

For the investor looking for low volatility exposure to the small-cap market, SMDV appears to be a great option.

SMDV Top Holdings

Financial Services: 25.16%

Utilities: 23.32 %

Industrials: 21.49% 

Basic Materials: 7.95%

Consumer Defensive: 7.89%

3. Invesco S&P 500® Low Volatility ETF - SPLV

Invesco’s S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF, SPLV, is a great way for investors to get exposure to 1) the best capitalized, and 2) the least volatile companies in the US. This fund attempts to mirror that of the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index, which is a weighted index that ranks the companies within it by their volatility. The less volatile a firm is, the higher its weighting within the index. 

The S&P Low Volatility Index has within it 100 stocks, all falling under the large-cap or mid-cap category (with the former outweighing the latter). The SPVL ETF currently has 103 stocks within it, making the ETF slightly more expansive than the index.

Just like the index, SPLV rebalances its holdings quarterly, which helps to keep up with the perennially shifting volatility in today’s markets. 

Worth mentioning too is the fund’s low beta of .70, as well as its modest expense ratio of 0.25%. For more specialized funds like SPLV, that fee isn’t too bad at all.

SPLV Top Holdings

Consumer Staples: 22.85%

Utilities: 15.81 %

Health Care: 14.74%

Industrials: 12.48%

Financials: 9.69%

4. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Min Vol Factor - EEMV

The iShares MSCI Emerg Mkts Min Vol Fctr ETF EEMV takes the pic for top emerging markets low volatility, high dividend ETF. This ETF tracks the MSCI Emerging Markets Minimum Volatility (USD) Index.

The investor seeking safety may be tempted to avoid emerging markets altogether, but to be truly safe you must be truly diversified, and to be truly diversified you must have exposure to all different kinds of equities, including those of emerging markets. 

There are two big reasons this ETF is on our list. The first is the exceptionally high dividend yield of 2.31%. Most investors don’t associate emerging markets with high dividends, but that is exactly the case here. 

The second reason is the fund’s low beta of 0.74%, which may help to bring a few volatility-burnt investors onboard. When compared to the volatile history of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, EEMV has fared quite well. According to Morningstar, the volatility of EEMV was 24% lower than the MSCI Emerging Markets Index from its launch in 2011 through June of 2020. That’s impressive. 

Fees are also exceptionally low for EEMV; the expense ratio is a meager 0.25%. Perhaps this is due in part to the fund’s low semiannual turnover cap of 10%. Lastly, EEMV has a healthy diversification across market sectors. Take a look at a few below.

EEMV Top Holdings

Financials: 19.90%

Communication: 16.63%

Information Technology: 15.16%

Consumer Discretionary: 11.69%

Consumer Staples: 10.60

5. Invesco S&P MidCap Low Volatility ETF - XMLV

The last fund on our list tackles the mid-cap sector. Invesco’s XMLV is a great way for the risk-averse investor to get relatively low volatility exposure to this sector. 

Worth mentioning is the heavy-weight XMLV presently places on the real estate sector. Their 18.69% exposure to real estate stands in stark contrast to the S&P 400 index, which currently has a weight of only 9.5% in this sector.

Though traditionally more stable than equities, the real estate sector is known for its incredibly volatile swings. Many of today’s Real Estate ETFs weren’t in existence during the financial crisis of 2007-2008. One fund that was around during this time was iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR). Take a look at this image to see how the iShares IYR fund fared during the volatile years of 2007-2008. Not well. 

As long as you can stomach the heavy real estate sector weight, IYR seems to be a great option for both a fat dividend and low volatility in the mid-cap sector.

XMLV Top Holdings

Industrials: 18.69%

Real Estate: 17.25%

Material: 12.67%

Utilities: 12.66%

Financials: 9.24%

5 Great Ways to Start Investing in 2022

5 Easy Ways to Start Investing Today

It’s never too early or too late to begin investing. Here are some tips to get started.

So you’re interested in getting started with investing. Congratulations! Investing can be a daunting subject, so kudos for making the first step. 

First things first: the most important part of investing isn’t investing at all, but budgeting. After all, how can you invest if you don’t have any money to invest with?

Budget

If you’re a young, recent college graduate, chances are your expenses are high and your salary is low – not the ideal situation. Student debt, rent, groceries, phone bills, etc, etc; all cripplingly add up. 

At this stage in your life, it’s easy to put investing in the back of your mind. In fact, that’s exactly what the majority of Americans do! It is estimated that as many as 64% of Americans aren’t ready for retirement. 

That is a staggering and scary number. The worst part about procrastination is it gets easier with every passing year. But there’s still hope, even for the procrastinators. But you have to start today. Right now. This moment.  

Investing is nothing more than mindful budgeting, and budgeting is nothing more than habit. 

Examine Your Expenses

Examine every expense in your life; your transportation methods, your clothing, even your morning coffee. I bet that if you look hard enough, you’ll find at least two ways to reduce spending without impacting the quality of your life. It has been estimated that a tall coffee at Starbucks every day adds up to $1,221 annually!

Let’s say 10 years ago you decided to forgo your expensive Starbucks coffee and invested that money in the S&P 500 instead. Today, that $1,221 would be worth over $3,740.

If you’re like me, there’s little chance you’re giving up your morning cold brew ritual, but the point is small purchases here and there can add up very quickly. Remember, it’s not so much what that dollar means today,  but more about what it could mean down the road. 

For example, the average Chicagoan spends over $118 on ride sharing every month; that number rises to $138 in NYC. That’s over $1,600 per year. Simply making your coffee at home and jumping on the bus can add up to TONS of savings over the years. 

So the first step is to determine what you can live without. Tighten the belt so you can feel it, but not so much that it hurts. You may even come to discover that living on a budget actually increases your enjoyment of life. After all, when you have less of something, its value increases.

Before we begin, I want to leave you with my two pillars of investing. If you take nothing away from this article, please remember this:

1. Retirement Accounts

Old Man With Money

Retirement accounts are listed number one on this list for a reason. Before you even think about investing in anything else, make sure you have contributed as much as possible into your retirement accounts. Why? Retirement accounts offer amazing tax advantages.

401(k) Plan

If you’re fortunate enough to have a 401k plan through your employer, those contributions go into your account before you pay taxes on them. This saves you money instantly.  

Let’s say you make 50k/year and you decide to put 10k into your 401k plan. For that year, you’re only paying the government taxes on 40k. As my accountant once asked me, “Would you rather pay taxes on 50k or 40k?”

So 401k contributions go into your account tax-free, but what about when it comes time to withdraw? Withdrawals in 401k’s are taxed as ordinary income. 

Generally, in retirement, you’ll be making less money than in your working years, so hopefully, you will be in a lower tax bracket when it comes time to withdraw. This is how it works for most people, but not all. If you stumble upon a windfall or adhere strictly to the F.I.R.E.(Financial Independence, Retire Early) mentality, maybe you’re expecting to have more income in retirement than you did when you worked. Wouldn’t it be nice if some of your withdrawals could be completely tax-free? 

ROTH IRA

This is when the Roth IRA comes in handy. Roth IRA withdrawals are 100% tax-free. The contributions to them, however, are made with after-tax dollars.

There is one more advantage to having a Roth IRA. We have no idea what the country’s tax rates will be next year, let alone thirty or forty years down the road. During WW2, some individual tax rates climbed to over 90%! 

Wouldn’t it be nice to have a chunk of savings immune to whatever political future is in store? Roth IRAs provide this shelter.

Another nice advantage of Roth IRAs is the flexibility they offer. Company-sponsored 401K plans typically are limited to a handful of mutual funds. If you open a Roth IRA, you can invest those funds any way you like.

For most people, keeping the vast majority of their savings in a 401k makes sense. At the very least, you should contribute enough to match that which your employer contributes (this average match being 4.3%).

Below are the 2021 contribution limits for both plans. 

NOTE: These limits are separate, meaning you could in theory contribute a total of $25,500 in 2021. This is assuming your income threshold allows you to contribute to a Roth IRA. 

2. Brokerage Account

Stock Trading Platform

If you are satisfied with both your 401k and Roth IRA contributions for the year, another great and potentially lucrative way to invest in your future is through the stock market through a brokerage account. Again, this should be done only after you have contributed as much as possible to your 401k and ROTH IRA. 

Remember, in retirement accounts, you have huge tax benefits that will weigh big time on your future returns, I’m talking potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars over the years. In a brokerage account, you deposit funds with after-tax money and then have to pay capital gains on any proceeds.

The first step is to open a brokerage account. We have decided to work with Tastyworks as they are the best in the business on most fronts. Not only do they actually answer the phone when you call, but you’ll speak with somebody who didn’t get their Series 7 last Monday. 

Approaching the stock market for the first time can be a nerve-racking experience. This need not be the case. If you’ve been paying attention, you probably have picked up on my minor obsession with diversification. I stress this in the stock market more than anywhere.

ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds)

The best part about exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are they do the work of diversification for you. As a matter of fact, in order to have a fully diversified portfolio of US stocks, you only need to buy one ETF – VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Share).

Buying one share of this ETF will expose you to over 3,500 companies in the US. Today, VTI is trading around $219/share. Can you imagine how much it would cost you to buy each of these 3,500 stocks individually?

Within this impressive basket, you’ll have exposure to large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap stocks as well as the numerous growth and value stocks within these categories.

Adding VXUS (Vanguard Total International 

Stock Index Fund ETF) in addition to VTI will give you exposure to a well-diversified blend of over 7,500 international stocks as well. 

Combined together,  these two low-fee ETFs will give you exposure to over 11,000 stocks, and all you need to do is buy two!

I can tell you the power of these two stocks by comparing their YTD returns to one of my retirement accounts. I spent countless hours crafting this portfolio, making sure all the ETFs were at least 4 stars on Morningstar, with most outperforming the underlying index. There are dozens of ETFs within it.

ETFs vs Mutual Funds

Mutual Funds Verse Stocks

I compared my results to that of VTI and VXUS last week. And you know what? VTI and VXUS beat my returns on the year. Not by much, but they still performed better. Going forward, I’m going to let the folks at Vanguard do the work for me. 

Both VTI and VXUS are index funds, meaning their aim is to match the index representing them.  This leaves little room for subjective minds. I like this because I know as many as 85% of fund managers (stock pickers) underperform the market. 

In my experience in the retail trading world, the biggest mistake investors make is thinking they can do it all on their own. If Albert Einstein can’t beat the stock market, I don’t believe fund managers, or myself, stand a chance.

3. Real Estate

Homeownership

Home At twilight

Perhaps the best (yet most difficult) way to invest in real estate is to buy the physical property yourself. With today’s mortgage rates lingering around 3%, mortgage loans are as attractive as ever. Compare today’s thirty-year mortgage rate of 3% to the 1980s, when it climbed as high as 18%!

One of the most attractive and overlooked components of homeownership is the tax benefits that come with selling. If you can sell your property for a profit, (assuming you have lived in the property for 2 years) the first $250,000 in gains is completely tax-free. This number goes up to $500,000 for a married couple. 

Homeownership could potentially save you money too. Sum up the total of all of your rental expenses and compare this number to the complete costs of a mortgage (make sure to include taxes, insurance, and HOA dues). If the numbers are comparable, and the prices in your neighborhood aren’t too elevated, why not purchase a home/condo?

Mortgage Advantages

Having a mortgage reduces your taxable income, too. Part of every mortgage payment is interest, and you can write-off mortgage interest payments on your taxes. As an example, if you paid $10,000 in mortgage interest in a given year, you can deduct that $10,000 from your taxable income earned in that same year. If you’re paying rent and don’t own a home, you can’t enjoy that benefit.

Lastly, mortgage payments are mostly payments to yourself. When you are renting an apartment, 100% of that payment is an expense. Money burned. When you have a mortgage, your mortgage payments will consist of principal and interest. 

Principal payments simply represent repayment of the loan (mortgage) given to you by the bank, while interest payments represent the fee or cost of borrowing that money. Principal payments can be thought of as payments to yourself, as you’re building equity (ownership) in your home by slowly paying off the loan issued to you by the bank. Since a mortgage is a loan to you from a bank to buy a home, the bank essentially owns that portion of the home. If you make a $100,000 down-payment to buy a $500,000 home, then your mortgage is $400,000. The bank effectively owns 80% of your home ($400,000 / $500,000). You own the other 20%, or $100,000, which is your equity.

As you make mortgage payments, your loan balance decreases and your home equity grows.

Mortgage In Tiles

Mortgage Example

As an example, let’s say your monthly mortgage payment is $2,000, with $1,300 being principal and the remaining $700 being interest.

After one year, you’ll have paid $24,000 in mortgage payments, with $15,600 of that amount representing principal payments, and the remaining $8,400 representing interest payments. 

The result? Your home equity grows to $115,600 after the first year, meaning you own more of the home and the bank owns less of the home. In essence, mortgage payments are basically investments into your home. So instead of paying rent and losing 100% of that money, having a mortgage results in payments to yourself, with only the interest portion of payments being lost. But as we mentioned earlier, you can deduct mortgage interest from your taxes.

In short, buying a home can be a win-win situation in terms of 1) paying yourself instead of a 100% rental expense, and 2) reducing taxable income by deducting mortgage interest payments.

If it makes sense but you’re still hesitant, just ask yourself one question: would you rather be adding to your own equity every month, or somebody else’s

If and when you decide to move and don’t want to sell, you can always rent the property out. Rental properties provide for stable and mostly market immune income.  Renting also comes with tax advantages as well. 

If that all sounds like too much of a headache for you, there are many other ways to invest in real estate, many of which require just a few clicks of your mouse.

Real Estate ETFs

The simplest and most liquid of all ways to invest in real estate is to do so through an ETF (exchange-traded fund). ETFs trade just like stocks. One particularly attractive fund for today’s skyrocketing residential housing market is REZ, the Residential and Multisector Real Estate fund, brought to you by iShares.

Below are a few more popular real estate ETFs. Check them out on Morningstar for unbiased reviews as to their historic and latest performance.

Another passive real estate option would be investing directly in a real estate investment trust (REIT). To learn more about the different kinds of REITs, checkout out our article, Equity REITS vs. Mortgage REITs

Fundrise

Fundrise is a burgeoning real estate crowdfunding platform. It is a great way for those looking for a more hands-on approach to real estate investing. Unlike simply buying an ETF, investing through Fundrise allows you to see what you’re investing in and how each of your real estate investments is coming along. 

Fundrise segments their investors by account level. $500 will get you set up with their lowest “Starter” account. These levels go all the way up to 100k+, which is called their “Premium” account level. 

The downside of Fundrise is, compared to ETFs, the liquidity is not great. You’re only able to sell your shares four times a year (at the end of each quarter). If you have a long time horizon, that may suit your needs. For those of us that have lived through the housing bubble, this lack of liquidity brings cause for concern. 

The fees at Fundrise could also eat into your profits over time. They charge an asset management fee of .85% in addition to an advisory fee of .15%, the total of which is more than double the fees of the very liquid REZ ETF.  

With competition growing in the real estate crowdfunding space, these fees are almost certain to go down in the future. I’ll think more seriously about investing in them when this time comes.

4. Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin Picture

A friend of mine asked me 3 years ago what I thought of Bitcoin. I told him I thought it was too risky at 15k. I was invested in three different cryptocurrencies at the time, but I couldn’t believe their meteoric rise would continue much longer. 

That very same friend asked me last week the very same question, but I had a different answer. I told him all investment portfolios should have some (very small) exposure to cryptos. I told him this because, in the past 3 years, I believe the crypto space has graduated from being a casino to becoming a widely accepted asset class. 

A well-diversified portfolio has exposure to as many assets as possible, regardless of risk. I can’t think of any better hedge to the innumerable black swans that await this world than bitcoin.

Dangers of Investing in Crypto Stocks

Just like in real estate, you can invest in Cryptocurrency through stocks, but, at the moment, these stocks are a poor substitution for the real thing. 

GBTC is just one example. It is a bitcoin trust (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust), designed to track the actual coin. The shares of a trust however, are very different from ETFs, as a trust can trade at a discount/premium to its actual holdings. Net Asset Value (NAV) represents the per-share equivalency of its holdings. Shares of an ETF will trade very closely to their NAV as Authorized Participants buy/sell shares of the ETF and its actual components to keep the ETFs shares close to NAV.

With a trust like GBTC, supply and demand dictate the price of the shares, whereas the price of ETFs is generally dictated by the underlying holdings.  

Until cryptocurrency ETFs become approved in the United States, your best chance at crypto exposure is to buy it directly through an exchange platform like Coinbase. You will pay high fees, but at the moment, there is no better option for the amateur crypto investor. 

Even better, you can take the Warren Buffett approach and set up a recurring purchase plan for bitcoin with a platform like Swan Bitcoin. Swan’s platform is the easiest way to start buying bitcoin as a beginner. Generally, you can get approved at Swan within a matter of minutes, and they are available globally. Compared to cryptocurrency exchanges like Coinbase or Gemini, you will save 23-80% in fees on recurring purchases by using Swan.

In 2021, a bitcoin futures-based ETF was launched. This product, however, has many risks. Be sure to check out our article, “ProShares BITO ETF Explained” to be more informed on these risks before investing. 

5. Savings Account, Money Market, Treasury Securities

Bank Vault

Next on our list, we have savings accounts, money market accounts, and Treasury securities (bonds). These traditional savings options are perhaps the least sexy right now on account of today’s historically low-interest-rate environment.

Interest rates are currently lower than inflation. This means that your money in the bank loses value every year. Why would anyone have their money in an investment that loses money?

Because it’s the only option we have to park cash (relatively) risk-free. Because a 0.07% interest rate is better than the 0.00% interest rate the money under your mattress accrues. 

For the elderly and risk-averse, this is truly a financial nightmare. To make things worse, low rates appear to be the new normal. One famed economist has even made a convincing case that interest rates have been going down since the hyperinflation following the Black Death!

Interest Rates Since Black Death Chart

Considering the world is only just now recovering from yet another pandemic, the future of those seeking returns through more traditional savings accounts and government securities is bleaker than ever. 

But that isn’t to say you shouldn’t have some money in the bank. It seems nothing is safe from the volatile swings occurring across today’s numerous asset classes. One rule of thumb is to keep three to six months of your salary tucked away in as risk-free of an environment as possible.

BlockFi's High Interest Rate

For those who are willing to take on more risk in a savings account, BlockFi is currently offering a remarkably high interest rate of over 7% on stablecoins. Stablecoins maintain a stable exchange rate with assets such as the US Dollar, and are far less volatile than regular cryptocurrencies, which is exactly why they are called stablecoins.

A cryptocurrency like bitcoin may be worth $30,000 today and $60,000 in a month, which means it has a variable or floating exchange rate. A USD-backed stablecoin such as USDC keeps a 1:1 exchange rate with the U.S. dollar. If you buy 1,000 units of USDC with $1,000, you can later convert your 1,000 units of USDC back into $1,000.

While the intention here isn’t to be a doomsayer, USD-backed stablecoins still represent the U.S. dollar, which means you do have currency-related risks. With the current rate of U.S. dollar money-printing right now, some fear that the U.S. dollar is in trouble. When the supply of something is rapidly increased, each unit loses value. So if you’re worried about the long-term value of the U.S. dollar, then buying a USD-backed stablecoin may not be the right choice for you. 

The interest rate that can be earned on stablecoin deposits is subject to market conditions and may change over time, but for now, earning 7.5%+ interest on idle cash in a savings account may be well worth it for those willing to take some additional risk with that cash. I must mention that there is also a greater risk in BlockFi’s interest-bearing accounts as they are not FDIC insured. 

To learn more about BlockFi, watch our YouTube video on the subject. 

But remember, most of your rainy-day funds should be held in tried and tested banks. 

Conclusion

There are innumerable ways to invest money. The key, from my experience, is to not get too creative. When I think of speculative investments, I always think of Mark Twain. America’s funniest man was also America’s worst investor. Everything he touched failed. His “Paige Typesetter” investment nearly destroyed both him and his family.

Perhaps the worst part of Twain’s story is what he wasn’t doing while he was worried about his investment in an over-complicated, 18,000 piece printing machine – and that is writing. I can’t help but wonder how many more works he would have produced had he simply invested his money in VTI and VXUS instead of impossibly complicated printing machines. 

Do what you love, and let your money work for you. I promise you, if you invest with both diversification and intelligence, you won’t be disappointed in its work ethic. 

After having put down one of my idols, I feel I must end this article with a quote by him. 

“The lack of money is the root of all evil” – Mark Twain 

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